Rahaman Waliur, Gutjahr Marcus, Prabhat Priyesh
National Centre for Polar and Ocean Research, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Vasco-Da-Gama, Goa, India.
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel, Germany.
Nat Commun. 2025 Jul 21;16(1):6705. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-61987-5.
Accurate prediction of a West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) collapse and its impact on sea level in a future warmer climate remains uncertain. Here, we provide evidence for the transition from a smaller-sized WAIS during the warm Pliocene to an expanded ice sheet closer to its modern configuration during the Pleistocene based on geochemical records from the proximity to the current maximum ice loss in the Amundsen Sea. In contrast to Pliocene ice sheet dynamics, the WAIS exhibited a relatively muted response throughout the Pleistocene despite substantial glacial-interglacial variations in atmospheric CO₂ levels, temperature, and orbital forcing. Our data suggest that critical tipping points for WAIS growth occurred under atmospheric-oceanic conditions of the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition. These findings highlight the importance of the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition in establishing the modern configuration of the WAIS and its importance as a key interval for understanding ice sheet stability under the changing climate.
在未来气候变暖的情况下，准确预测西南极冰盖（WAIS）的崩塌及其对海平面的影响仍然不确定。在此，我们基于来自阿蒙森海当前最大冰损失附近的地球化学记录，提供了上新世暖期时规模较小的WAIS向更新世时更接近现代形态的扩张冰盖转变的证据。与上新世冰盖动态不同，尽管大气二氧化碳水平、温度和轨道强迫在冰期 - 间冰期有显著变化，但WAIS在整个更新世的响应相对不明显。我们的数据表明，WAIS增长的关键临界点出现在上新世 - 更新世过渡时期的大气 - 海洋条件下。这些发现凸显了上新世 - 更新世过渡在确立WAIS现代形态中的重要性，以及它作为理解气候变化下冰盖稳定性的关键时期的重要性。
