Chen Liping, Chen Yan, Hu Zhengming, Cai Huali, Lin Xiaona, Zhong Jieyu, Sun Desheng
Department of Ultrasound Imaging, Shenzhen Hospital, Peking University, Shenzhen, China.
Guangdong Medical University, Zhanjiang, China.
Thyroid Res. 2025 Jul 22;18(1):36. doi: 10.1186/s13044-025-00255-6.
BACKGROUND: The preoperative cervical lymph node metastasis (CLNM) status in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) critically determines the type of lymph node dissection performed. Currently, ultrasonography is the primary method for initial CLNM screening in PTC patients. This study aims to analyze the efficacy of an ultrasonic-characteristics-based scoring system in diagnosing lymph node metastasis in PTC and construct a predictive nomogram. METHODS: The imaging findings, fine-needle aspiration (FNA) results, and surgical pathology data from 269 suspected CLNM cases at Peking University Shenzhen Hospital, spanning from July 2021 to October 2022, were retrospectively analyzed. We identified specific ultrasound characteristics and assigned scores based on our clinical experience. The diagnostic performance of the ultrasound scoring system was assessed by plotting receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calculating the area under the curve (AUC). Additionally, a nomogram was developed using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-logistic regression. The nomogram's discrimination was evaluated using ROC analysis, its accuracy was assessed with calibration curves, and its clinical utility was determined by decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: In this study, factors such as age, sex, lymph node length, thickness, aspect ratio, shape, hilum status, echogenicity, microcalcification, cystic necrosis, blood flow pattern, and the ultrasonic score were included in the analysis. The ultrasound score had the highest (AUC = 0.914, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.880-0.950), with an optimal cutoff value of 2.5. A score of 3 or higher had a diagnostic sensitivity for CLNM of 81.1%, specificity of 85.2%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 83.1%, negative predictive value (NPV) of 83.4%, and Kappa value of 0.664. Subsequent LASSO regression analysis identified sex, hyperechogenicity, peripheral disordered blood flow, and the ultrasonic score as independent predictors of CLNM, which were incorporated into a logistic regression-based predictive nomogram. The model exhibited strong discriminatory performance in both the training set (AUC = 0.933, 95% CI: 0.820-0.910) and the test set (AUC = 0.958, 95% CI: 0.790-0.890) for distinguishing PTC with and without CLNM. Furthermore, calibration curves and decision curve analysis (DCA) confirmed the model's good fit and favorable clinical net benefit. CONCLUSION: The ultrasonic scoring method and the Nomogram have significant clinical utility in the preoperative assessment of CLNM in PTC, reducing unnecessary FNA procedures, and are simple and practical for clinical application. CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER: Not applicable.
背景:甲状腺乳头状癌(PTC)患者术前颈部淋巴结转移(CLNM)状态对所施行的淋巴结清扫类型至关重要。目前,超声检查是PTC患者初始CLNM筛查的主要方法。本研究旨在分析基于超声特征的评分系统在诊断PTC淋巴结转移中的效能,并构建预测列线图。 方法:回顾性分析2021年7月至2022年10月在北京大学深圳医院的269例疑似CLNM病例的影像表现、细针穿刺(FNA)结果及手术病理数据。我们识别出特定的超声特征,并根据临床经验进行评分。通过绘制受试者操作特征(ROC)曲线并计算曲线下面积(AUC)来评估超声评分系统的诊断性能。此外,使用最小绝对收缩和选择算子(LASSO)-逻辑回归开发列线图。通过ROC分析评估列线图的辨别力,用校准曲线评估其准确性,并通过决策曲线分析(DCA)确定其临床实用性。 结果:本研究分析了年龄、性别、淋巴结长度、厚度、纵横比、形状、门部状态、回声性、微钙化、囊性坏死、血流模式及超声评分等因素。超声评分的AUC最高(AUC = 0.914,95%置信区间[CI]:0.880 - 0.950),最佳截断值为2.5。评分3及以上对CLNM的诊断敏感性为81.1%,特异性为85.2%,阳性预测值(PPV)为83.1%,阴性预测值(NPV)为83.4%,Kappa值为0.664。随后的LASSO回归分析确定性别、高回声性、周边紊乱血流及超声评分是CLNM的独立预测因素,并将其纳入基于逻辑回归的预测列线图。该模型在区分有无CLNM的PTC训练集(AUC = 0.933,95% CI:0.820 - 0.910)和测试集(AUC = 0.958,95% CI:0.790 - 0.890)中均表现出较强的辨别性能。此外,校准曲线和决策曲线分析(DCA)证实了模型的良好拟合及有利的临床净效益。 结论:超声评分方法和列线图在PTC患者CLNM的术前评估中具有显著的临床实用性,减少了不必要的FNA检查,且临床应用简单实用。 临床试验编号:不适用。
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