Su Shanshan, Su Qichen, Zhong Huohu, Lyu Guorong, Li Yuanzhe, Wang Yi, Xu Zhirong
Department of Ultrasound in Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Quanzhou, China.
Department of CT/MRI, Second Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Quanzhou, China.
Front Med (Lausanne). 2025 Jul 8;12:1533165. doi: 10.3389/fmed.2025.1533165. eCollection 2025.
Dysphagia is common in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), prompting the need for predictive models for this condition. In this study, we aimed to develop a nomogram model for dysphagia prediction in patients with COPD.
Data from 300 patients with COPD were divided into the training ( = 210) and validation ( = 90) cohorts. Independent risk factors for dysphagia were identified using logistic regression and used to construct a nomogram model. The model's predictive efficacy, accuracy, and clinical utility were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, calibration, decision curve analysis, and clinical impact curves.
Hypoglossal-hyoid shortening rate, hyoid-larynx shortening approximation distance, chin time of movement of the genioglossus, and distance of movement of the genioglossus were identified as independent risk factors. The nomogram exhibited areas under the curve of 0.834 and 0.804 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively, indicating good predictive efficacy and calibration.
The nomogram model effectively predicts dysphagia occurrence in patients with COPD, providing a valuable tool for risk assessment.
吞咽困难在慢性阻塞性肺疾病（COPD）中很常见，因此需要针对这种情况建立预测模型。在本研究中，我们旨在开发一种用于预测COPD患者吞咽困难的列线图模型。
将300例COPD患者的数据分为训练队列（n = 210）和验证队列（n = 90）。使用逻辑回归确定吞咽困难的独立危险因素，并用于构建列线图模型。使用受试者工作特征曲线分析、校准、决策曲线分析和临床影响曲线评估模型的预测效能、准确性和临床实用性。
舌下-舌骨缩短率、舌骨-喉缩短近似距离、颏舌肌运动的颏部时间和颏舌肌运动距离被确定为独立危险因素。该列线图在训练队列和验证队列中的曲线下面积分别为0.834和0.804，表明具有良好的预测效能和校准。
列线图模型可有效预测COPD患者吞咽困难的发生，为风险评估提供了有价值的工具。
