Lewis Richard H, Magnotti Louis J, Manley Nathan, Davis Greggory R, Martinez Benjamin, Hoover William, Jacome Tomas
Trauma Surgery, Our Lady of the Lake Regional Medical Center, Baton Rouge, USA.
Trauma Surgery, The University of Arizona, Tucson, USA.
Cureus. 2025 Jun 22;17(6):e86544. doi: 10.7759/cureus.86544. eCollection 2025 Jun.
Introduction The annual reporting of homicides often captures the nation's attention, with the unspoken assumption that this serves as a proxy for overall gun-related violent crime. The purpose of this study is to evaluate whether the overall trend in homicide rates accurately reflects the overall trend in gun-related violent crime over time. Methods Using police crime incident data from a large urban city in the southern United States, the total number of gun-related violent crimes, gunshot victims treated at the trauma center, and homicides per year from 2014 to 2020 were recorded. Rates of gunshot victims, gun-related violent crimes, and homicides per 100,000 population were stratified by year and compared over time using simple linear regression. Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was then used to compare the rate of increase of homicides to gun-related violent crimes. Results There were 4,928 gun-related violent crimes and 567 homicides over the study period. Linear regression analysis identified a significant increase in gun-related crime rate (201.92 to 447.3 incidents per 100,000 population, p = 0.01) and homicide rate (25.90 to 50.24 incidents per 100,000 population, p = 0.028) from 2014 to 2020. The rate of gunshot victims treated at the trauma center appeared to increase during the study period, although the increase was not statistically significant (57.94 to 125.6 incidents per 100,000 population, p = 0.0624). ANCOVA revealed that gun-related violent crimes increased at a greater rate compared to homicides, with respective slopes of 34.01 (95% CI: 20.49 to 47.54) and 3.36 (95% CI: -15.77 to 36.03). The interaction between year and crime type was statistically significant (p = 0.005), indicating different rates of increase. Conclusion Annual homicide rates should be interpreted with caution, as they may not accurately reflect the true extent of gun violence in communities. Broadening our understanding represents the first step in preventing continued increases in this major public health problem.
引言 杀人案的年度报告常常引起全国关注，人们默认这可代表与枪支相关的总体暴力犯罪情况。本研究的目的是评估杀人案发生率的总体趋势是否能准确反映随时间推移与枪支相关的暴力犯罪的总体趋势。方法 利用美国南部一个大城市的警方犯罪事件数据，记录了2014年至2020年每年与枪支相关的暴力犯罪总数、在创伤中心接受治疗的枪击受害者人数以及杀人案数量。按年份对每10万人口中的枪击受害者率、与枪支相关的暴力犯罪率和杀人案发生率进行分层，并使用简单线性回归随时间进行比较。然后使用协方差分析（ANCOVA）来比较杀人案发生率与与枪支相关的暴力犯罪发生率的增长速度。结果 在研究期间，有4928起与枪支相关的暴力犯罪和567起杀人案。线性回归分析表明，从2014年到2020年，与枪支相关的犯罪率（每10万人口中从201.92起增至447.3起，p = 0.01）和杀人案发生率（每10万人口中从25.90起增至50.24起，p = 0.028）均显著上升。在研究期间，在创伤中心接受治疗的枪击受害者率似乎有所上升，尽管增幅无统计学意义（每10万人口中从57.94起增至125.6起，p = 0.0624）。ANCOVA显示，与枪支相关的暴力犯罪的增长速度高于杀人案，各自的斜率分别为34.01（95%置信区间：20.49至47.54）和3.36（95%置信区间：-15.77至36.03）。年份与犯罪类型之间的交互作用具有统计学意义（p = 0.005），表明增长速度不同。结论 对年度杀人案发生率的解读应谨慎，因为它们可能无法准确反映社区中枪支暴力的真实程度。拓宽我们的认识是预防这一重大公共卫生问题持续增加的第一步。
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