Luke Joanne, Temple Jeromey, Wilson Tom, Williams Ruth, Taylor Sean, LoGiudice Dina
Demography, Centre for Health Policy, School of Population and Global Health, Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Onemda: Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Health and Wellbeing Unit, School of Population and Global Health & Melbourne School of Health Science, Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Australas J Ageing. 2025 Sep;44(3):e70068. doi: 10.1111/ajag.70068.
To produce plausible estimates of the number of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander people living with dementia within Australia disaggregated by state and territory to mid-century.
The Wilson-Grossman variation of the Hamilton-Perry projection model was used to prepare state and territory projections of the Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander population, 2021-2051. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census (2021) and Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2021 were used to estimate the number of people living with dementia 2021-2051.
From 2021 to 2051, the Australian Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander population is projected to grow across all states and territories. By 2051, there will be an increasing number and proportion of the population aged over 45, 65 and 80 years, with this increase varying by jurisdiction. This pattern of ageing will see an increase in the number of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander people living with dementia, regardless of assumptions about future dementia prevalence. This increase will vary in magnitude by juristiction, doubling in the Northern Territory and increasing more than fivefold in the Australian Capital Terrritory, New South Wales, Tasmania and Queensland. Sensitivity analyses of alternative dementia scenarios produce highly similar results.
Between 2021 and 2051, the estimated number of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander people living with dementia is projected to increase. Combined with regional demographic variations, this trend highlights the urgent need for targeted responses at both local and national levels.
对到本世纪中叶澳大利亚患有痴呆症的原住民和/或托雷斯海峡岛民人数进行合理估计，并按州和领地进行分类。
使用汉密尔顿 - 佩里预测模型的威尔逊 - 格罗斯曼变体，对2021 - 2051年原住民和/或托雷斯海峡岛民人口进行州和领地预测。澳大利亚统计局人口普查（2021年）和澳大利亚卫生与福利研究所2021年的数据用于估计2021 - 2051年患有痴呆症的人数。
从2021年到2051年，预计澳大利亚所有州和领地的原住民和/或托雷斯海峡岛民人口都会增长。到2051年，45岁、65岁和80岁以上人口的数量和比例将增加，且不同司法管辖区的增幅有所不同。这种老龄化模式将导致患有痴呆症的原住民和/或托雷斯海峡岛民人数增加，无论对未来痴呆症患病率的假设如何。这种增加在不同司法管辖区的幅度会有所不同，北领地将翻倍，澳大利亚首都领地、新南威尔士州、塔斯马尼亚州和昆士兰州将增加超过五倍。对替代痴呆症情景的敏感性分析产生了高度相似的结果。
在2021年至2051年期间，预计患有痴呆症的原住民和/或托雷斯海峡岛民人数将会增加。结合区域人口结构差异，这一趋势凸显了在地方和国家层面采取针对性应对措施的迫切需求。
