Threshold effect study on the development of prefabricated buildings for energy conservation and emission reduction in the construction industry.

Prefabricated construction is a key strategy for achieving a low-carbon transformation in the construction sector. In the context of national policies and standards aimed at promoting an increase in the prefabrication rate, recent investigations have revealed that the environmental benefits of prefabricated construction cannot be consistently realized, and the lack of data on the development of prefabricated construction has resulted in limited related research. To address this issue, this paper tackles the issue of inadequate data on indicators pertaining to the growth of prefabricated construction by utilizing crawler technology. It employs the super-efficiency slack-based measure (SBM) model to assess the comprehensive energy-saving and emission-reduction efficiency of China's construction industry. Using the Technology-Organization-Environment (TOE) framework and threshold regression models construct an impact mechanism model to study the main driving factors of energy conservation and emission reduction (ECER) in the construction industry, with a particular focus on the development of prefabricated construction and its associated threshold effects. The results indicate that: (1) China's construction industry's ECER efficiency shows a fluctuating growth trend, with the national average efficiency ranging between 0.6 and 0.8, and significant regional disparities. (2) At this stage, the prefabrication rate, policy effectiveness, and the number of patent applications are key factors affecting the ECER efficiency of the construction industry, with the prefabrication rate and policy effectiveness exhibiting a double-threshold effect. (3) The optimum ECER outcomes are obtained by keeping the prefabrication rate between 50% and 60%, and the effectiveness of policies in fostering these goals is trending downward. Therefore, controlling the rate at which new buildings are prefabricated, comprehending the efficacy of policy standards, and raising the technological level of prefabricated construction are all practical ways to increase the construction industry's efficiency in reducing emissions and conserving energy. This study offers a theoretical foundation and decision-making basis for relevant authorities in formulating measures and quantifying indicators, contributing to the development of prefabricated construction and enhancing ECER efficiency in the construction industry.