Fesce Elisa, Ferraguti Martina
Wildlife Health Lab, Department of Veterinary Medicine and Animal Sciences, Università degli Studi di Milano, Lodi, Italy.
Departamento de Biología de la Conservación y Cambio Global, Estación Biológica de Doñana (EBD), CSIC, Seville, Spain.
Pathog Glob Health. 2025 Oct;119(7):243-258. doi: 10.1080/20477724.2025.2538838. Epub 2025 Jul 30.
Vector-borne pathogens like West Nile virus (WNV), an emerging zoonotic arbovirus, are strongly influenced by mosquito community dynamics. WNV is maintained between birds and mosquitoes, with humans and other mammal species (such as equids) as dead-end hosts. In Spain, the role of as main vector of WNV is gaining significance over due to differences in feeding behavior, and vector competence, and ecological preferences that affect WNV transmission. Using a SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered) model, we examined how mosquito abundance and feeding preferences impact WNV spread in a Mediterranean region. Our results suggest that, under the conditions simulated, alone is unlikely to sustain WNV transmission in the study area, whereas may contribute more substantially to outbreak dynamics. Increased avian-feeding preferences were associated with higher outbreak intensity, although the basic reproduction number () remained below one in all scenarios. Sensitivity analyses highlighted that bite rates and abundance of are key drivers of WNV spread in our model. Furthermore, a dilution effect was observed when fed more frequently on dead-end hosts, which contributed to lowering . Our findings underscore the need for species-specific vector surveillance to inform public health interventions and control strategies for WNV and other mosquito-borne diseases.
像西尼罗河病毒(WNV)这样的媒介传播病原体,是一种新兴的人畜共患虫媒病毒,受到蚊子群落动态的强烈影响。WNV在鸟类和蚊子之间循环传播,人类和其他哺乳动物物种(如马科动物)则是终末宿主。在西班牙,由于取食行为、媒介能力以及影响WNV传播的生态偏好存在差异,[某种蚊子名称]作为WNV主要传播媒介的作用相对于[另一种蚊子名称]正变得越来越重要。我们使用一个SEIR(易感-暴露-感染-康复)模型,研究了蚊子数量和取食偏好如何影响WNV在地中海地区的传播。我们的结果表明,在模拟条件下,仅[某种蚊子名称]不太可能在研究区域维持WNV传播,而[另一种蚊子名称]可能对疫情动态有更大贡献。增加对鸟类的取食偏好与更高的疫情强度相关,尽管在所有情况下基本再生数(R0)仍低于1。敏感性分析强调,[某种蚊子名称]的叮咬率和数量是我们模型中WNV传播的关键驱动因素。此外,当[某种蚊子名称]更频繁地取食终末宿主时,观察到了稀释效应,这有助于降低R0。我们的研究结果强调了进行物种特异性媒介监测的必要性,以便为WNV和其他蚊媒疾病的公共卫生干预措施和控制策略提供依据。