Dubey Parul, Dubey Pushkar
Symbiosis Institute of Technology, Nagpur Campus, Symbiosis International (Deemed University), Pune, India.
Department of Management, Pandit Sundarlal Sharma (Open) University Chhattisgarh, India.
MethodsX. 2025 Jul 15;15:103498. doi: 10.1016/j.mex.2025.103498. eCollection 2025 Dec.
Wildfires present a growing threat to ecosystems, human settlements, and climate stability, necessitating accurate and interpreted prediction systems. Existing AI-based models often prioritize performance over explainability, limiting their utility in real-time decision-making contexts. Current wildfire forecasting models struggle to incorporate uncertainty and offer transparent response strategies. Moreover, many models fail to integrate domain knowledge in a way that supports actionable interventions. This study utilizes the Canadian Fire Spread Dataset, augmented with Sentinel, ERA5, and SRTM data, encompassing vegetation, meteorological, and topographic variables. The suggested system uses a Transformer-based model to predict fires over time and space, along with a Fuzzy Rule-Based System (FRBS) to create rules for responding to those predictions. This integration allows for both high accuracy and interpretability in decision-making under uncertain environmental conditions. The novelty lies in the use of symbolic fuzzy reasoning layered onto a deep attention-based architecture. Performance was evaluated using metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and AUC. The model achieved an F1-score of 92.9 % and accuracy of 94.8 %, significantly outperforming baseline and deep learning alternatives. • Integrates deep learning with fuzzy logic for both accurate forecasting and interpretable response planning. • Enables uncertainty-aware reasoning by translating predictions into actionable fire management rules. • Demonstrates superior performance across diverse environmental datasets using multi-source satellite and climate inputs.
野火对生态系统、人类住区和气候稳定性构成了日益严重的威胁,因此需要准确且可解释的预测系统。现有的基于人工智能的模型通常将性能置于可解释性之上,限制了它们在实时决策环境中的效用。当前的野火预测模型难以纳入不确定性并提供透明的应对策略。此外,许多模型未能以支持可操作干预措施的方式整合领域知识。本研究利用了加拿大火灾蔓延数据集,并辅以哨兵、ERA5和SRTM数据,涵盖植被、气象和地形变量。所建议的系统使用基于Transformer的模型来预测火灾的时空分布,同时使用基于模糊规则的系统(FRBS)为应对这些预测制定规则。这种整合在不确定的环境条件下进行决策时既保证了高精度又具备可解释性。其新颖之处在于将符号模糊推理应用于基于深度注意力的架构之上。使用准确率、精确率、召回率、F1分数和AUC等指标对性能进行了评估。该模型的F1分数达到了92.9%,准确率为94.8%,显著优于基线模型和深度学习替代方案。
• 将深度学习与模糊逻辑相结合,实现准确预测和可解释的应对规划。
• 通过将预测转化为可操作的火灾管理规则,实现不确定性感知推理。
• 使用多源卫星和气候输入数据,在不同环境数据集中展现出卓越性能。