Barrett J C
Arch Gerontol Geriatr. 1985 Oct;4(3):211-8. doi: 10.1016/0167-4943(85)90003-2.
Vital statistics data previously published by the Registrar General of England and Wales have been separated into male and female deaths in 1960-69 aged 100, 1961-70 aged 101, 1962-71 aged 102 etc., to represent cohorts of 292 male and 1463 female centenarians born in 1859-1869. Mortality is fitted to age by the method of maximum likelihood. Estimated male mortality declines after age 103 and falls below that of females (who show no decline) at age 105. The cause of this non-Gompertzian tapering off in mortality is found to be selection due to variability in the males, which is more than sufficient to offset the biological effects of aging that nevertheless occur in each individual. Selection causes a reduction of 0.01 per year of age in mean male centenarian mortality rates in England and Wales.
1960 - 1969年100岁的男性和女性死亡数据、1961 - 1970年101岁的男性和女性死亡数据、1962 - 1971年102岁的男性和女性死亡数据等，以代表1859 - 1869年出生的292名男性和1463名女性百岁老人群体。采用最大似然法将死亡率拟合到年龄。估计男性死亡率在103岁之后下降，并在105岁时降至女性死亡率以下（女性死亡率没有下降）。发现这种死亡率非戈姆珀茨式逐渐下降的原因是男性个体差异导致的选择作用，这种差异足以抵消每个个体中仍然存在的衰老生物学效应。在英格兰和威尔士，选择作用使男性百岁老人平均死亡率每年降低0.01。
