Hu Yan, Zhang Zhifeng, Peng Li, Lu Wenjie, Jiang Haotian, Zhu Jiayue, Liu Xu
School of Health Science and Engineering, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai 200093, China.
Department of Health Service, Faculty of Health Service, Naval Medical University, Shanghai 200433, China.
Prev Med Rep. 2025 Jul 18;57:103177. doi: 10.1016/j.pmedr.2025.103177. eCollection 2025 Sep.
Injuries remain a major cause of death globally amid rising health threats from climate change and extreme weather. This study examined the association between ambient temperatures and different injury mechanisms to identify vulnerable populations in Shanghai.
Injury-related emergency ambulance dispatch records and corresponding meteorological data for the period 2016-2021 were obtained from the Shanghai Emergency Dispatch Center and the Shanghai Meteorological Service. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) with a quasi-Poisson distribution was applied to evaluate the association between ambient temperatures and injury-related emergency ambulance dispatches. Subgroup analyses were further conducted by gender, age group, and injury mechanisms to identify vulnerable populations.
Extreme temperatures were associated with increases in total injury-related emergency ambulance dispatches, as well as traffic accidents, falls, and assault injuries. Low temperatures were linked to an elevated risk of fall injuries, particularly among women aged 46 years and above. In contrast, extreme heat was associated with increased risks of traffic accidents and assault injuries among individuals aged 18-45, with assault injuries showing a particularly pronounced association among men.
Our findings can guide prehospital emergency service departments in developing targeted interventions to reduce injury incidence and mortality during extreme temperature events.
在气候变化和极端天气对健康构成的威胁日益增加的情况下，伤害仍是全球主要死因。本研究调查了环境温度与不同伤害机制之间的关联，以确定上海的脆弱人群。
从上海市急救中心和上海市气象局获取了2016年至2021年期间与伤害相关的急救救护车调度记录及相应气象数据。应用具有准泊松分布的分布滞后非线性模型（DLNM）来评估环境温度与伤害相关急救救护车调度之间的关联。进一步按性别、年龄组和伤害机制进行亚组分析，以确定脆弱人群。
极端温度与伤害相关急救救护车调度总数增加以及交通事故、跌倒和袭击伤有关。低温与跌倒受伤风险升高有关，尤其是46岁及以上的女性。相比之下，酷热与18至45岁人群交通事故和袭击伤风险增加有关，袭击伤在男性中关联尤为明显。
我们的研究结果可为院前急救服务部门制定有针对性的干预措施提供指导，以降低极端温度事件期间的伤害发生率和死亡率。
