Borhaninejad Vahidreza, Gohari Milad Ahmadi, Jahani Yunes, Googhari Saber Amirzadeh, Jannati Nazanin, Mirzaee Moghaddameh
Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
Iran J Public Health. 2025 May;54(5):1064-1073. doi: 10.18502/ijph.v54i5.18641.
The prevalence of Alzheimer's disease in Iran, attributed to the demographic shift towards an aging population, holds considerable importance. We aimed to estimate the prevalence and number of Alzheimer's disease in Iran by 2029.
Dynamic modeling techniques were employed to project the number of Alzheimer's disease (AD) among the elderly population in Iran by the year 2029. Two interconnected models were developed to facilitate this estimation. The initial model is a demographic model that captures the aging population's growth dynamics. The subsequent model, an AD evaluation model, that assess potential impacts on disease. This approach enables a comprehensive analysis of the factors influencing AD trends within the context of Iran's aging demographic.
The results show the number of individuals aged over 60 is expected to rise from approximately 9.1 million in 2020 to around 13.7 million in 2029. As the older adult population grows, the number of AD is also anticipated to increase. The number of Alzheimer's patients is predicted to grow from about 464,400 in 2020 to roughly 729,900 by 2029.
Forecasting future trends in AD, especially in developing countries, is crucial for policymakers because of its growing impact on healthcare systems and economies globally. The findings of this study can aid in assessing the economic burdens associated with treating Alzheimer's patients, providing valuable insights for planning and resource allocation.
由于人口结构向老龄化转变，伊朗阿尔茨海默病的患病率具有相当重要的意义。我们旨在估计到2029年伊朗阿尔茨海默病的患病率和患病人数。
采用动态建模技术预测到2029年伊朗老年人口中的阿尔茨海默病（AD）患病人数。为此开发了两个相互关联的模型。初始模型是一个人口模型，用于捕捉老年人口的增长动态。随后的模型是一个AD评估模型，用于评估对疾病的潜在影响。这种方法能够在伊朗人口老龄化的背景下，对影响AD趋势的因素进行全面分析。
结果显示，60岁以上的人数预计将从2020年的约910万增加到2029年的约1370万。随着老年人口的增长，AD的患病人数预计也会增加。阿尔茨海默病患者人数预计将从2020年的约464400人增加到2029年的约729900人。
预测AD的未来趋势，尤其是在发展中国家，对政策制定者至关重要，因为它对全球医疗系统和经济的影响日益增大。本研究结果有助于评估治疗阿尔茨海默病患者的经济负担，为规划和资源分配提供有价值的见解。
