Lin Ting-Yu, Ming-Fang Yen Amy, Li-Sheng Chen Sam, Hsu Chen-Yang, Yeh Yen-Po, Hsiu-Hsi Chen Tony
Institute of Health Data Analytics and Statistics, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.
School of Oral Hygiene, College of Oral Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan.
Comput Biol Med. 2025 Aug 6;196(Pt C):110877. doi: 10.1016/j.compbiomed.2025.110877.
BACKGROUND: Precision containment strategies incorporating artificial intelligence (AI)-driven dynamic viral shedding models are pivotal for the effective control of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs). Among the foundational applications within the Metaverse, digital twins-which integrate physical and virtual environments via augmented reality (AR) and mixed reality (MR)-offer a promising solution. Leveraging IoT-like laboratory-based viral shedding data together with demographic and clinical features, this study aims to develop a data-driven digital twin model for precision viral surveillance to monitor EIDs and to provide an immersive framework for evaluating the effectiveness of contact tracing, isolation, and quarantine protocols within the Metaverse. METHODS: We proposed a digital twin thread architecture, comprising a temporal data pipeline designed to support multiple twin functionalities. The process began with the development of the physical twin, which incorporated dynamic cycle threshold (Ct) data from serial RT-PCR tests-serving as IoT-like laboratory inputs along with the associated demographic and clinical data. The underlying parameters of infectious disease dynamics were learned through Markov-based statistical machine learning, applied to these time-series data. A virtual avatar representing these digital threads-a virtual thread cohort-was rendered in virtual reality (VR). Analytic twins, enhanced via AR, overlaid virtual data onto the physical twin to bridge observed and inferred states. Subsequently, decision twins, implemented through MR, were utilized to assess the effectiveness of immersive, precision-guided interventions such as contact tracing, isolation, and quarantine. This framework was applied to COVID-19 outbreaks caused by the Alpha and Omicron variants of concern (VOCs) in Changhua, Taiwan, using viral shedding data. A showcase case study on precision contact tracing during the Alpha VOC outbreak was presented. A noise-driven privacy protection method was implemented for addressing the concern of patient confidentiality. RESULTS: From the physical twin data of 269 confirmed Alpha VOC cases, a virtual thread cohort of 1,000,000 simulated cases was generated. Analytic twins, enabled by AR, synthesized data from both physical observations and virtual predictions, capturing real-time dynamics that were otherwise unobservable. Using this framework, the initial Alpha VOC cluster was analyzed to derive key transmission indicators. Decision twins identified optimal Ct-guided contact tracing windows: for individuals with Ct values between 18 and 25, retrospective tracing for 7 days achieved 30 % effectiveness, 13 days yielded 60 %, and 24 days reached 90 %. For Omicron VOC, the effectiveness of quarantine among vaccinated individuals (with booster) reached 77 % after 3 days and 94 % after 7 days, compared to 39 % and 76 % in unboosted individuals, respectively. The utility of precision contact tracing within the Metaverse was validated by the Alpha VOC outbreak showcase study along with the presentation of a noise-driven approach for data privacy protection and data security. CONCLUSIONS: This Ct-guided, data-driven digital twin model demonstrates a novel approach to EID containment, highlighting the potential of the Metaverse as a convergence of physical and cyber domains. Our findings illustrate the applicability and scalability of digital twin frameworks in precision public health and underscore their broader implications for future healthcare innovations taking data security and privacy protection into account.
背景:结合人工智能驱动的动态病毒载量模型的精准防控策略对于有效控制新发传染病(EID)至关重要。在元宇宙的基础应用中,数字孪生——通过增强现实(AR)和混合现实(MR)整合物理和虚拟环境——提供了一个有前景的解决方案。本研究利用类似物联网的基于实验室的病毒载量数据以及人口统计学和临床特征,旨在开发一个数据驱动的数字孪生模型用于精准病毒监测,以监测新发传染病,并提供一个沉浸式框架来评估元宇宙中接触者追踪、隔离和检疫协议的有效性。 方法:我们提出了一种数字孪生线程架构,包括一个旨在支持多种孪生功能的时间数据管道。该过程始于物理孪生的开发,它纳入了来自系列逆转录聚合酶链反应(RT-PCR)测试的动态循环阈值(Ct)数据——作为类似物联网的实验室输入以及相关的人口统计学和临床数据。传染病动力学的潜在参数通过基于马尔可夫的统计机器学习来学习,并应用于这些时间序列数据。一个代表这些数字线程的虚拟化身——一个虚拟线程群组——在虚拟现实(VR)中呈现。通过AR增强的分析孪生将虚拟数据叠加到物理孪生上,以弥合观察到的和推断出的状态。随后,通过MR实现的决策孪生被用于评估诸如接触者追踪、隔离和检疫等沉浸式、精准引导干预措施的有效性。该框架利用病毒载量数据应用于台湾彰化由关注的阿尔法和奥密克戎变异株(VOC)引起的新冠疫情。展示了一个关于阿尔法变异株疫情期间精准接触者追踪的案例研究。实施了一种噪声驱动的隐私保护方法来解决患者保密性问题。 结果:从269例确诊的阿尔法变异株病例的物理孪生数据中,生成了一个包含100万个模拟病例的虚拟线程群组。由AR实现的分析孪生综合了物理观察和虚拟预测的数据,捕捉到了原本无法观察到的实时动态。使用这个框架,对最初的阿尔法变异株集群进行了分析以得出关键传播指标。决策孪生确定了最佳的Ct引导接触者追踪窗口:对于Ct值在18至25之间的个体,追溯7天的有效性为30%,13天为60%,24天为90%。对于奥密克戎变异株,接种疫苗(有加强针)个体的检疫有效性在3天后达到77%,7天后达到94%,而未接种加强针个体分别为39%和76%。阿尔法变异株疫情展示研究以及一种噪声驱动的数据隐私保护和数据安全方法的展示验证了元宇宙中精准接触者追踪的实用性。 结论:这个Ct引导、数据驱动的数字孪生模型展示了一种控制新发传染病的新方法,突出了元宇宙作为物理和网络领域融合的潜力。我们的研究结果说明了数字孪生框架在精准公共卫生中的适用性和可扩展性,并强调了它们在考虑数据安全和隐私保护的情况下对未来医疗创新的更广泛影响。
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