Planting for a changing climate: Smallholders' tree species selection for agroforestry-based intensification and diversification.

In the Sahel, arable land is threatened by implications of climate change. Agroforestry offers smallholders opportunities to adapt to climate-related challenges, for instance by intensifying and/or diversifying food production through the integration of fertilizer and/or fruit trees. This study investigates whether Senegalese smallholders plant trees and select fertilizer and/or fruit tree species considering their perceptions of climate-related challenges. Using survey data from 606 smallholders in the Senegalese Groundnut Basin, we grouped tree species into fertilizer and fruit tree categories and applied a Heckman regression model for our analysis. Our results show that 82 % of smallholders perceived land degradation as challenge to their cropping activities. Other frequently reported challenges included an increasing occurrence of heavy rain events (29 %), soil salinization (26 %), and shortening rainy seasons (24 %). In the first regression stage, mainly resource constraints, such as limited access to wells (p < 0.1), secure land tenure (p < 0.01), agroforestry knowledge (p < 0.01), or subsidies (p < 0.05) are associated with lower likelihoods of tree planting. Climate change perceptions, however, show statistically significant associations with species selection, with fruit trees more likely to be selected when for instance land degradation (p < 0.01) or shortened rainy seasons (p < 0.01) are perceived as threats. The perception of soil salinization, however, appears to discourage fertilizer (p < 0.05) and fruit (p < 0.01) tree planting. Policy efforts should focus on improving resource access, promoting salt-tolerant tree species, and encouraging smallholders to integrate fertilizer and fruit trees into cropping systems as part of a holistic adaptation strategy to climate change.