Jiang Chunyan, Wang Yayun, Li Wanqi, Ding Runze
School of Finance and Economics, Shenzhen Institute of Information Technology, Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, China.
School of Economics, Shenzhen Polytechnic University, Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, China.
PLoS One. 2025 Aug 13;20(8):e0329213. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0329213. eCollection 2025.
This study aims to investigate the time-varying bidirectional causal relationship between household education expenditure and resident credit behavior, as well as the heterogeneous mechanisms under different economic conditions and household characteristics. By constructing a TVP-SV-VAR model and a QVAR-DY model, we analyze urban household data in China from January 2015 to December 2024, unveiling the dynamic relationship between education expenditure and credit behavior, along with their asymmetry and heterogeneity. The findings reveal a significant bidirectional causal relationship between household education expenditure and resident credit behavior, which exhibits heterogeneity across different quantile levels and is influenced by household income, education level, and credit interest rates. Additionally, this study employs static and dynamic window methods to analyze the short-term, medium-term, and long-term spillover effects. Based on these findings, we propose policy recommendations for optimizing household education investment and credit market management under low, medium, and high-risk levels.
本研究旨在探讨家庭教育支出与居民信贷行为之间的时变双向因果关系，以及不同经济条件和家庭特征下的异质性机制。通过构建时变参数-随机波动向量自回归（TVP-SV-VAR）模型和分位数向量自回归-动态预测（QVAR-DY）模型，我们分析了2015年1月至2024年12月中国城市家庭数据，揭示了教育支出与信贷行为之间的动态关系及其不对称性和异质性。研究结果表明，家庭教育支出与居民信贷行为之间存在显著的双向因果关系，这种关系在不同分位数水平上表现出异质性，并受到家庭收入、教育水平和信贷利率的影响。此外，本研究采用静态和动态窗口方法分析短期、中期和长期溢出效应。基于这些发现，我们提出了在低、中、高风险水平下优化家庭教育投资和信贷市场管理的政策建议。
