Ding Zhensen, Song Lingjun, Fang Haifeng, Yao Zhanhui, Wang Jia
School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing, China.
Center for Automotive Strategy and Policy Research, China Automotive Technology and Research Center Co., Ltd., Tianjin, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Aug 13;15(1):29713. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-15196-1.
Fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) are still in the early phases of development, largely influenced by policy measures. However, the current support policies have not effectively fostered the growth of the FCEV industry. Moreover, most existing research is based on qualitative analysis, which falls short in tackling this issue. This study developed a policy evaluation model that combines the analytic hierarchy process and content analysis (AHP-CA) to assess the differences between ideal and actual policy distributions, grounded in AHP and CA theories. Furthermore, CA-industry chain analysis model and CA-value chain analysis model were constructed. These models utilize a two-dimensional matrix to evaluate how policies are distributed across the industry chain and value chain. The results show that: In terms of policy types, preferential fiscal and tax policies exhibited a large negative deviation (-0.29), while comprehensive macro-policies policies exhibited a large positive deviation (0.17). In terms of policy instruments, demand-oriented policy instruments demonstrated a large negative deviation (-0.09), while environment-oriented ones demonstrated a large positive deviation (0.06). In terms of specific policy measures, a large negative deviation was observed in government procurement (-0.15), and a large positive deviation in policy strategies (0.13). From the perspective of the industrial chain and value chain, the supply side still needs to be further strengthened. It is proposed to enhance fiscal and tax preferential policies to further address the economic barriers in the early stages of FCEV industry development. Specifically, a demand-oriented approach should be adopted, with government procurement as the main measure. Additionally, efforts should be made to guide the improvement of supply-side capabilities and to enhance the demonstration and guidance for private consumption. Future research will focus on ways to classify policies and policy-making mechanisms that can adapt to changes over time.
燃料电池电动汽车（FCEV）仍处于发展初期，很大程度上受到政策措施的影响。然而，当前的支持政策并未有效促进FCEV产业的发展。此外，现有的大多数研究基于定性分析，在解决这一问题上存在不足。本研究开发了一种结合层次分析法和内容分析法（AHP-CA）的政策评估模型，以评估理想政策分布与实际政策分布之间的差异，该模型基于AHP和CA理论。此外，构建了CA-产业链分析模型和CA-价值链分析模型。这些模型利用二维矩阵来评估政策在产业链和价值链中的分布情况。结果表明：在政策类型方面，优惠财税政策呈现出较大的负偏差（-0.29），而综合宏观政策呈现出较大的正偏差（0.17）。在政策工具方面，需求导向型政策工具表现出较大的负偏差（-0.09），而环境导向型政策工具表现出较大的正偏差（0.06）。在具体政策措施方面，政府采购出现了较大的负偏差（-0.15），政策策略出现了较大的正偏差（0.13）。从产业链和价值链的角度来看，供应侧仍需进一步加强。建议加强财税优惠政策，以进一步解决FCEV产业发展初期阶段的经济障碍。具体而言，应采取需求导向型方法，以政府采购为主要措施。此外，应努力引导供应侧能力的提升，并加强对私人消费的示范和引导。未来的研究将聚焦于政策分类方法以及能够适应随时间变化的政策制定机制。
