Li Yang, Zhang Dongxiao, Liu Yishan, Gao Zhongya, Zhang Bangke, Lu Xuhua
University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai, China.
Shanghai Changzheng Hospital, Shanghai, China.
Eur Spine J. 2025 Aug 14. doi: 10.1007/s00586-025-09162-8.
OBJECTIVE: To develop a nomogram-based predictive model for anterior longitudinal ligament (ALL) injury caused by cervical spine trauma. METHODS: A total of 256 patients with cervical hyperextension injuries were included in this study. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to select the predictive variables, and subsequently, a nomogram model was developed. Finally, the model was validated using both the training and validation datasets. RESULTS: The nomogram model included five predictive factors: thickness of prevertebral soft tissue (TOPST), intervertebral disk angle (IDA), avulsion fracture of the anterior edge of the vertebral body (AFOA), ALL disruption observed in T1-weighted sequence (T1D), and high signal intensity in T2-weighted sequence (T2HS). The areas under the curve (AUC) for the training and validation sets were 0.986 and 0.987, respectively. The calibration curves for both the training and validation sets showed slopes close to 1, indicating good calibration. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the model performed well and was feasible for making beneficial clinical decisions. CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram model based on TOPST, IDA, AFOA, T1D, and T2HS is a reliable tool for predicting cervical ALL injury.
目的:建立基于列线图的颈椎创伤致前纵韧带(ALL)损伤预测模型。 方法:本研究纳入256例颈椎过伸伤患者。采用单因素和多因素逻辑回归分析筛选预测变量,随后建立列线图模型。最后,使用训练集和验证集对模型进行验证。 结果:列线图模型包括五个预测因素:椎体前软组织厚度(TOPST)、椎间盘角度(IDA)、椎体前缘撕脱骨折(AFOA)、T1加权序列中观察到的ALL中断(T1D)和T2加权序列中的高信号强度(T2HS)。训练集和验证集的曲线下面积(AUC)分别为0.986和0.987。训练集和验证集的校准曲线斜率均接近1,表明校准良好。决策曲线分析表明,该模型性能良好,对于做出有益的临床决策是可行的。 结论:基于TOPST、IDA、AFOA、T1D和T2HS的列线图模型是预测颈椎ALL损伤的可靠工具。
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