González Támara Leandro, Barragán Moreno Sandra Patricia
Superior School of Public Administration, Territorial Cundinamarca, Fusagasugá, Colombia.
Academic Area of Basic Sciences and Modeling, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Engineering, University of Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano, Bogotá, Colombia.
Front Sociol. 2025 Jul 30;10:1474113. doi: 10.3389/fsoc.2025.1474113. eCollection 2025.
Homelessness in Colombia is a critical social issue that is strongly associated with psychoactive substance use. This study aims to model the variables influencing substance use among individuals experiencing homelessness in Colombia, offering insights to inform public policy design.
This research draws on data from the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) censuses conducted in 2017, 2019, and 2021. A two-stage quantitative methodology was applied: (1) descriptive analysis of the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the homeless population, and (2) predictive modeling using random forest algorithms to identify key variables associated with substance use. While results reveal strong associations, they do not imply causality. The study focuses on available variables, acknowledging the absence of psychosocial factors and the need for complementary qualitative research.
The analysis identified age and the duration of homelessness as the most influential variables associated with substance use. Descriptive findings revealed that 66-68% of the homeless population reported consuming at least one psychoactive substance, with higher consumption rates observed among younger individuals and those with shorter durations of homelessness. The random forest model demonstrated high predictive accuracy and confirmed the centrality of these variables. Moreover, men were more likely to use substances than women, and both family conflict and prior substance use were key factors contributing to the onset and persistence of homelessness.
The findings indicate that substance use is prevalent among homeless individuals in Colombia and shaped by distinct demographic factors. The bidirectional relationship between homelessness and substance use reveals a complex dynamic in which each condition reinforces the other. These results highlight the importance of targeted interventions directed at younger individuals and those recently experiencing homelessness. Future research using system dynamics modeling is recommended to further explore the feedback mechanisms underlying this relationship.
This study offers a detailed analysis of the variables influencing substance use among homeless individuals in Colombia. By identifying age and homelessness duration as critical factors, the research contributes actionable knowledge for the development of evidence-based public policies. Implementing targeted interventions based on these findings may improve the health outcomes and social reintegration of this vulnerable population, ultimately enhancing public health and safety.
哥伦比亚的无家可归现象是一个严重的社会问题，与精神活性物质的使用密切相关。本研究旨在对影响哥伦比亚无家可归者物质使用的变量进行建模，为公共政策设计提供参考依据。
本研究采用了2017年、2019年和2021年国家统计局（DANE）人口普查的数据。应用了两阶段定量方法：（1）对无家可归人口的人口统计学和社会经济特征进行描述性分析，（2）使用随机森林算法进行预测建模，以确定与物质使用相关的关键变量。虽然结果显示出强烈的关联，但并不意味着存在因果关系。该研究关注现有变量，承认缺乏心理社会因素以及需要进行补充性定性研究。
分析确定年龄和无家可归持续时间是与物质使用最相关的影响因素。描述性结果显示，66%至68%的无家可归人口报告至少使用过一种精神活性物质，在年轻人和无家可归持续时间较短的人群中观察到更高的使用率。随机森林模型显示出较高的预测准确性，并证实了这些变量的核心地位。此外，男性比女性更有可能使用物质，家庭冲突和既往物质使用都是导致无家可归现象发生和持续的关键因素。
研究结果表明，物质使用在哥伦比亚无家可归者中普遍存在，并受到不同人口统计学因素的影响。无家可归与物质使用之间的双向关系揭示了一种复杂的动态，其中每种情况都会相互强化。这些结果凸显了针对年轻人和近期无家可归者的有针对性干预措施的重要性。建议未来使用系统动力学建模进行研究，以进一步探索这种关系背后的反馈机制。
本研究对影响哥伦比亚无家可归者物质使用的变量进行了详细分析。通过将年龄和无家可归持续时间确定为关键因素，该研究为制定循证公共政策提供了可操作的知识。根据这些发现实施有针对性的干预措施，可能会改善这一弱势群体的健康状况和社会重新融入情况，最终增强公众健康和安全。
