Zhu Qiaoling, Wang Ru, Xu Fazhan, Ji Cheng, Yi Dandan, Sang Jianfeng
Department of Pharmacy, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Medical School, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.
Nanjing Medical Center for Clinical Pharmacy, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.
Endocrine. 2025 Aug 14. doi: 10.1007/s12020-025-04357-x.
PURPOSE: Hypocalcemia is a common complication after total thyroidectomy (TT). Several studies have identified risk factors for early biochemical hypocalcemia, nevertheless, the noteworthy symptomatic hypocalcemia has not been considered. This study aims to construct an intuitive predictive model for biochemical and symptomatic hypocalcemia to assist individualized management. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted on thyroid cancer patients undergoing TT. Two separate patient cohorts were used for model development and external validation, respectively. Data were gathered to identify the risk factors for biochemical (serum calcium <8.0 mg/dL) and symptomatic hypocalcemia by logistic regression. A predictive model was visualized by a nomogram and validated internally and externally. RESULTS: Of 431 patients studied, 258 (59.9%) developed hypocalcemia including 180 with biochemical hypocalcemia and 196 with symptomatic hypocalcemia, of whom 118 patients had both. Female (OR 2.108, 95% CI 1.166-3.812, P = 0.014) and postoperative PTH decreased ratio ≥ 60% (OR 22.489, 95% CI 13.289-38.058, P < 0.001) were independent risk factors for hypocalcemia, while BMI ≥ 24 kg/m (OR 0.567, 95% CI 0.331-0.970, P = 0.038) was a protective factor. Besides, Hashimoto's thyroiditis tended to increase the risk of hypocalcemia (P = 0.082). A nomogram was developed and a predicted probability of exceeding 0.55 suggested a higher risk of hypocalcemia with a sensitivity of 81.8% and a specificity of 82.1%. The internal and external validated areas under the curve (AUC) were 0.860 and 0.862, respectively. CONCLUSION: The validated nomogram combining gender, BMI and proportion of PTH reduction may guide the risk identification and stratified management of hypocalcemia after total thyroidectomy.
目的:低钙血症是全甲状腺切除术后常见的并发症。多项研究已确定早期生化性低钙血症的危险因素,然而,值得注意的症状性低钙血症尚未得到考虑。本研究旨在构建生化性和症状性低钙血症的直观预测模型,以辅助个体化管理。 方法:对接受全甲状腺切除术的甲状腺癌患者进行回顾性研究。分别使用两个独立的患者队列进行模型开发和外部验证。通过逻辑回归收集数据,以确定生化性(血清钙<8.0mg/dL)和症状性低钙血症的危险因素。通过列线图直观呈现预测模型,并进行内部和外部验证。 结果:在研究的431例患者中,258例(59.9%)发生低钙血症,其中180例为生化性低钙血症,196例为症状性低钙血症,118例患者两者均有。女性(比值比2.108,95%可信区间1.166 - 3.812,P = 0.014)和术后甲状旁腺激素降低比例≥60%(比值比22.489,95%可信区间13.289 - 38.058,P < 0.001)是低钙血症的独立危险因素,而体重指数≥24kg/m²(比值比0.567,95%可信区间0.331 - 0.970,P = 0.038)是保护因素。此外,桥本甲状腺炎倾向于增加低钙血症风险(P = 0.082)。开发了列线图,预测概率超过0.55表明低钙血症风险较高,灵敏度为81.8%,特异度为82.1%。内部和外部验证的曲线下面积分别为0.860和0.862。 结论:经验证的结合性别、体重指数和甲状旁腺激素降低比例的列线图可指导全甲状腺切除术后低钙血症的风险识别和分层管理。
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