Jing Bian, Xiaofeng Ren
College of Education, Qinghai Normal University, Qinghai, Xining, China.
Gansu Qilian Mountain Water Conservation Forest Research Institute, Zhangye, China.
Front Public Health. 2025 Aug 1;13:1632713. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1632713. eCollection 2025.
This study investigates the evolution patterns and future trends of ambient air quality in oasis cities within arid regions, with Urumqi as a representative case.
Utilizing observational data from eight urban monitoring stations, we comprehensively analyze air quality variations and project future scenarios through the Air Quality Index (AQI), Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, and Grey correlation modeling. Our aim is to elucidate the contributions of atmospheric pollutants to ambient air quality in arid oasis cities.
The results show that: (1) In 2022, Urumqi's AQI ranged from 24 to 363, with exceed rates of 2.5% for severely polluted weather, 6.15% for heavily polluted conditions, 5.8% for moderate pollution, and 10% for mild pollution. (2) Dust events elevated inhalable particulate matter (PM) concentrations by 5 μg·m, contributing 6.5% to pollution levels, while the ambient air quality composite index reached 4.45. Dust's specific contribution to this index was 0.05(1.1%).(3) Meteorological factors-precipitation, wind speed, temperature, and vapor pressure-exhibited significant negative correlations ( < 0.05) with PM₂.₅, PM₁₀, SO₂, NO₂, and CO concentrations, but a positive correlation with O₃. Wind speed showed a strong negative association with NO₂ ( < 0.01), while temperature and vapor pressure were positively linked to O₃ ( < 0.01). (4) The GM (1,1) model demonstrated high predictive accuracy, with errors between 1.0 and 4.2%. Projections indicate a rising trend in ozone concentrations, with the 90th percentile O₃ potentially exceeding 160 μg·m by 2025.
These results provide critical insights into the spatiotemporal dynamics of air pollution in Urumqi and its natural drivers, offering a scientific basis for regional air quality management and pollution mitigation strategies.
本研究以乌鲁木齐为典型案例，调查干旱地区绿洲城市环境空气质量的演变模式和未来趋势。
利用8个城市监测站的观测数据，我们通过空气质量指数（AQI）、斯皮尔曼等级相关系数和灰色关联模型，全面分析空气质量变化并预测未来情景。我们的目的是阐明大气污染物对干旱绿洲城市环境空气质量的贡献。
结果表明：（1）2022年，乌鲁木齐的AQI范围为24至363，重度污染天气超标率为2.5%，严重污染状况超标率为6.15%，中度污染超标率为5.8%，轻度污染超标率为10%。（2）沙尘事件使可吸入颗粒物（PM）浓度升高了5μg·m，对污染水平的贡献率为6.5%，而环境空气质量综合指数达到4.45。沙尘对该指数的具体贡献率为0.05（1.1%）。（3）气象因素——降水、风速、温度和水汽压——与PM₂.₅、PM₁₀、SO₂、NO₂和CO浓度呈显著负相关（<0.05），但与O₃呈正相关。风速与NO₂呈强负相关（<0.01），而温度和水汽压与O₃呈正相关（<0.01）。（4）GM（1,1）模型显示出较高的预测准确性，误差在1.0%至4.2%之间。预测表明臭氧浓度呈上升趋势，到2025年，第90百分位数的O₃可能超过160μg·m。
这些结果为乌鲁木齐空气污染的时空动态及其自然驱动因素提供了关键见解，为区域空气质量管理和污染缓解策略提供了科学依据。
