Wang Tao, Pan Rui, Li Cong, Qin Ying, Song Chao
Department of Critical Care Medicine, Guiqian International General Hospital, Guiyang, Guizhou, China.
Department of Anesthesia, Meitan County Maternal and Child Health Hospital, Zunyi, Guizhou, China.
Front Public Health. 2025 Aug 4;13:1618416. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1618416. eCollection 2025.
The study aimed to describe the epidemiological trend of chronic kidney disease (CKD) due to hypertension among adolescents and young adults during 1990-2021 worldwide. Additionally, the study seeks to provide comprehensive estimate of the associated risk factors for mortality and to project the burden of disease over the next decade.
We utilized the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) to assess the changing trends of the standardized incidence rate (ASIR), death (ASDR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) ASR by calculating the estimated average percentage change (EAPC). Meanwhile, to assesses proportional death of CKD due to hypertension attributable to associated risk factors. The Bayesian Age-Time-Quest Model (BAPC) to predict the ASIR, ASDR and DALY ASR for young people aged 15 to 39 by 2035.
In 2021, there were 36,754 incident cases of CKD due to hypertension among adolescents and young adults worldwide. The corresponding ASIR of CKD due to hypertension was 0.91 per 100,000 population (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 0.67-1.18), and the EAPC was 0.99(95% Confidence interval (CI), 0.95-1.03) from 1990 to 2021. The DALYs case of CKD due to hypertension increased from 825,628.28(95%UI, 646,823.70-1,054,246.62) to 1,180,452.47(95%UI, 889,946.51-1,523,802.55), and the corresponding ASR increased from 37.67 per 100,000 population (95%UI, 29.51-48.10) to 39.68 per 100,000 population (95%UI, 29.92-51.22), the EAPC was -0.01(95% CI, -0.10 to 0.08). Among the 5 SDI regions, the middle SDI region had the highest ASIR of CKD due to hypertension in 2021. Regionally, High-income North America had the largest increase in ASDR (EAPC, 3.92; 95% CI, 3.58 to 4.26). Among 204 countries, Nicaragua had the highest national ASIR of CKD due to hypertension in 2021 (4.47 per 100,000 population; 95% UI, 2.48-7.31), Finland had the lowest ASDR (0.00 per 100,000 population; 95% UI, 0.00-0.00). Globally, dietary risks kidney dysfunction, high systolic blood pressure, were key risk factors for CKD due to hypertension-associated mortality in 2021. By 2035 years, ASDR and DALYs related to CKD due to hypertension will decline worldwide, ASIR are projected to continue rising among adolescents and young adults.
CKD resulting from hypertension globally poses a significant challenge for healthcare systems. Therefore, a comprehensive understanding of the epidemiological characteristics of CKD associated with hypertension will be crucial for developing more effective prevention and control strategies.
本研究旨在描述1990年至2021年全球青少年和青年中高血压所致慢性肾脏病（CKD）的流行病学趋势。此外，该研究还试图全面评估相关死亡风险因素，并预测未来十年的疾病负担。
我们利用全球疾病负担（GBD）数据，通过计算估计平均百分比变化（EAPC）来评估标准化发病率（ASIR）、死亡率（ASDR）和伤残调整生命年（DALYs）率的变化趋势。同时，评估高血压所致CKD因相关风险因素导致的比例死亡。采用贝叶斯年龄-时间-队列模型（BAPC）预测到2035年15至39岁年轻人的ASIR、ASDR和DALY率。
2021年，全球青少年和青年中高血压所致CKD的发病病例有36754例。高血压所致CKD的相应ASIR为每10万人0.91例（95%不确定区间[UI]，0.67-1.18），1990年至2021年的EAPC为0.99（95%置信区间[CI]，0.95-1.03）。高血压所致CKD的DALYs病例从825628.28（95%UI, 646823.70-1054246.62）增加到1180,452.47（95%UI, 889946.51-1523802.55），相应的率从每10万人37.67例（95%UI, 29.51-48.10）增加到每10万人39.68例（95%UI, 29.92-51.22），EAPC为-0.01（95%CI, -0.10至0.08）。在5个社会人口指数（SDI）区域中，中等SDI区域在2021年高血压所致CKD的ASIR最高。在各区域中，高收入北美地区的ASDR增幅最大（EAPC, 3.92；95%CI, 3.58至4.26）。在204个国家中，尼加拉瓜在2021年高血压所致CKD的全国ASIR最高（每10万人4.47例；95%UI, 2.48-7.31），芬兰的ASDR最低（每10万人中0.00例；95%UI, 0.00-0.00）。在全球范围内，饮食风险、肾功能不全、高收缩压是2021年高血压相关死亡所致CKD的关键风险因素。到2035年，全球高血压所致CKD相关的ASDR和DALYs将下降，预计青少年和青年中的ASIR将继续上升。
全球范围内高血压所致CKD对医疗系统构成重大挑战。因此，全面了解高血压相关CKD的流行病学特征对于制定更有效的预防和控制策略至关重要。
