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Global, regional, and national burden of other musculoskeletal disorders, 1990-2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

出版信息

Lancet Rheumatol. 2023 Oct 23;5(11):e670-e682. doi: 10.1016/S2665-9913(23)00232-1. eCollection 2023 Nov.


DOI:10.1016/S2665-9913(23)00232-1
PMID:37927903
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10620749/
Abstract

BACKGROUND: Musculoskeletal disorders include more than 150 different conditions affecting joints, muscles, bones, ligaments, tendons, and the spine. To capture all health loss from death and disability due to musculoskeletal disorders, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) includes a residual musculoskeletal category for conditions other than osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, gout, low back pain, and neck pain. This category is called other musculoskeletal disorders and includes, for example, systemic lupus erythematosus and spondylopathies. We provide updated estimates of the prevalence, mortality, and disability attributable to other musculoskeletal disorders and forecasted prevalence to 2050. METHODS: Prevalence of other musculoskeletal disorders was estimated in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 using data from 68 sources across 23 countries from which subtraction of cases of rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis, low back pain, neck pain, and gout from the total number of cases of musculoskeletal disorders was possible. Data were analysed with Bayesian meta-regression models to estimate prevalence by year, age, sex, and location. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from prevalence and disability weights. Mortality attributed to other musculoskeletal disorders was estimated using vital registration data. Prevalence was forecast to 2050 by regressing prevalence estimates from 1990 to 2020 with Socio-demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying by population forecasts. FINDINGS: Globally, 494 million (95% uncertainty interval 431-564) people had other musculoskeletal disorders in 2020, an increase of 123·4% (116·9-129·3) in total cases from 221 million (192-253) in 1990. Cases of other musculoskeletal disorders are projected to increase by 115% (107-124) from 2020 to 2050, to an estimated 1060 million (95% UI 964-1170) prevalent cases in 2050; most regions were projected to have at least a 50% increase in cases between 2020 and 2050. The global age-standardised prevalence of other musculoskeletal disorders was 47·4% (44·9-49·4) higher in females than in males and increased with age to a peak at 65-69 years in male and female sexes. In 2020, other musculoskeletal disorders was the sixth ranked cause of YLDs globally (42·7 million [29·4-60·0]) and was associated with 83 100 deaths (73 600-91 600). INTERPRETATION: Other musculoskeletal disorders were responsible for a large number of global YLDs in 2020. Until individual conditions and risk factors are more explicitly quantified, policy responses to this burden remain a challenge. Temporal trends and geographical differences in estimates of non-fatal disease burden should not be overinterpreted as they are based on sparse, low-quality data. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

摘要
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c345/10620749/d9399504b062/gr3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c345/10620749/456e1042144d/gr1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c345/10620749/7072b913c4c8/gr2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c345/10620749/d9399504b062/gr3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c345/10620749/456e1042144d/gr1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c345/10620749/7072b913c4c8/gr2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c345/10620749/d9399504b062/gr3.jpg

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本文引用的文献

[1]
Global prevalence of spondyloarthritis in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis protocol.

BMJ Open. 2020-10-29

[2]
Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Lancet. 2020-10-17

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Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Lancet. 2020-10-17

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Global, regional, and national burden of other musculoskeletal disorders 1990-2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

Rheumatology (Oxford). 2021-2-1

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Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study.

Lancet. 2020-7-14

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Pediatr Rheumatol Online J. 2020-7-14

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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

Lancet. 2018-11-8

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Use of The Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health survey module for estimating the population prevalence of musculoskeletal pain: findings from the Solomon Islands.

BMC Musculoskelet Disord. 2018-8-16

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Prevalence and incidence of psoriatic arthritis: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Semin Arthritis Rheum. 2018-1-6

[10]
The worldwide incidence and prevalence of systemic lupus erythematosus: a systematic review of epidemiological studies.

Rheumatology (Oxford). 2017-11-1

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