Xie Shiwei, Xiao Heng, Xu Lei, Zhang Fan, Luo Mingwei
Panzhihua Central Hospital, Panzhihua, Sichuan, China.
Department of Orthopedic Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, Kunming, Yunnan, China.
Front Public Health. 2025 Aug 4;13:1467509. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1467509. eCollection 2025.
Tuberculosis (TB), an infectious disease caused by , remains a major global public health challenge, particularly in developing countries. Despite a global reduction in TB incidence from 2015 to 2020, the disease continues to be prevalent, with 9.4 million new cases and 1.35 million deaths reported in 2021. This study aims to assess the global, regional, and national burden of TB, with a specific focus on Africa and Southeast Asia, using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study.
Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 (GBD 2021) study were used to evaluate TB incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2021. Statistical analyses were conducted using R software and Joinpoint Regression Program to identify trends in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR). The annual percentage change (APC) was calculated to assess the significance of temporal trends.
From 1990 to 2021, global age-standardized rates of TB declined markedly, with ASIR decreasing from 173.0 to 103.0 per 100,000, ASMR from 40.0 to 14.0, and ASDR from 1,650.6 to 580.3. Although incident case numbers slightly declined globally, absolute numbers increased in Africa and Southeast Asia, despite reductions in standardized rates. The disease burden has shifted from younger to older age groups, reflecting population aging. Males consistently exhibited a higher burden than females, though sex disparities narrowed over time. Joinpoint regression confirmed sustained declines in all indicators, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia. Projections to 2040 suggest continued reductions and convergence in burden across regions. Spatial analyses identified persistent high-burden clusters in sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia, despite overall global improvement.
TB remains a significant public health issue, especially in Africa and Southeast Asia. While global incidence and mortality have decreased, persistent regional disparities call for more targeted interventions. Ongoing global efforts are essential to further reduce TB-related morbidity and mortality.
结核病（TB）是一种由……引起的传染病，仍然是全球主要的公共卫生挑战，尤其是在发展中国家。尽管2015年至2020年全球结核病发病率有所下降，但该疾病仍然普遍存在，2021年报告有940万新病例和135万人死亡。本研究旨在利用全球疾病负担研究的数据，评估全球、区域和国家的结核病负担，特别关注非洲和东南亚地区。
使用2021年全球疾病负担（GBD 2021）研究的数据来评估1990年至2021年期间的结核病发病率、患病率、死亡率和伤残调整生命年（DALYs）。使用R软件和Joinpoint回归程序进行统计分析，以确定年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）、年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）和年龄标准化DALY率（ASDR）的趋势。计算年度百分比变化（APC）以评估时间趋势的显著性。
1990年至2021年期间，全球结核病年龄标准化率显著下降，ASIR从每10万人173.0例降至103.0例，ASMR从40.0例降至14.0例，ASDR从1650.6降至580.3。尽管全球新发病例数略有下降，但非洲和东南亚的绝对病例数有所增加，尽管标准化率有所下降。疾病负担已从年轻年龄组转移到老年年龄组，反映了人口老龄化。男性的负担一直高于女性，不过随着时间的推移性别差距有所缩小。Joinpoint回归证实所有指标持续下降，特别是在非洲和东南亚。到2040年的预测表明各地区的负担将继续下降并趋于一致。空间分析确定撒哈拉以南非洲和东南亚仍然存在高负担聚集区，尽管全球总体情况有所改善。
结核病仍然是一个重大的公共卫生问题，特别是在非洲和东南亚。虽然全球发病率和死亡率有所下降，但持续存在的区域差异需要更有针对性的干预措施。持续的全球努力对于进一步降低与结核病相关的发病率和死亡率至关重要。
