Kennedy Katrina S, Wagner Elizabeth D, Meyerson Nicholas S, Oliphant Stephen N, McCourt Alexander D, Zeoli April M, Webster Daniel W, Crifasi Cassandra K
Department of Health, Behavior and Society, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
Center for Gun Violence Solutions, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
Inj Prev. 2025 Aug 20. doi: 10.1136/ip-2025-045700.
Youth aged 15-24 experience high rates of firearm homicide and suicide, yet there is limited research on the impact of promising preventative policies, such as firearm purchaser licensing (FPL) laws, among this age group. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of adopting or repealing an FPL law on homicide and suicide among those aged 15-24, by age subgroup (ie, 15-17, 18-20, 21-24).
Mortality data from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics. We used augmented synthetic controls to estimate the effect of FPL law adoption in Connecticut and Maryland and repeal in Missouri and Michigan on youth homicide and suicide rates. Analyses were stratified by age subgroup and firearm involvement.
FPL adoption was associated with decreases in firearm homicide and suicide among those aged 15-24 overall and among most age subgroups in Connecticut. FPL repeal was consistently associated with increases in firearm suicide among each age subgroup, with less consistent results for firearm homicide.
FPL law changes had meaningful impacts on firearm homicide and suicide among youth aged 15-24, with consistent protective effects observed following adoption in Connecticut and consistent harmful effects following repeal in Missouri. Mixed results in Maryland and Michigan highlight the importance of policy features and sociopolitical context in shaping the effectiveness of these laws. These findings reinforce the effectiveness of FPL laws as a strategy to reduce firearm-related mortality among youth.
15至24岁的青少年遭受枪支凶杀和自杀的比率很高，然而对于诸如枪支购买者许可（FPL）法等有前景的预防政策在该年龄组中的影响，相关研究却很有限。本研究的目的是评估采用或废除FPL法对15至24岁人群（按年龄亚组，即15至17岁、18至20岁、21至24岁）的凶杀和自杀情况的影响。
从国家卫生统计中心获取1990年至2019年的死亡率数据。我们使用增强合成对照法来估计康涅狄格州和马里兰州采用FPL法以及密苏里州和密歇根州废除FPL法对青少年凶杀和自杀率的影响。分析按年龄亚组和枪支涉入情况进行分层。
总体而言，在15至24岁人群中以及康涅狄格州的大多数年龄亚组中，采用FPL法与枪支凶杀和自杀率的下降相关。废除FPL法始终与各年龄亚组中枪支自杀率的上升相关，而对于枪支凶杀的结果则不太一致。
FPL法的变化对15至24岁青少年的枪支凶杀和自杀产生了有意义的影响，康涅狄格州采用该法后观察到持续的保护作用，密苏里州废除该法后则产生了持续的有害影响。马里兰州和密歇根州的结果不一，凸显了政策特征和社会政治背景对这些法律有效性的塑造作用。这些发现强化了FPL法作为降低青少年枪支相关死亡率策略的有效性。
