Li Hui, Cui Zhongshan, Wang Fuhai, Wang Yunmin, Zhang Xiaoyuan, Guo Honglei
College of Public Management, Chongqing Finance and Economics College, Chongqing, China.
School of Management, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China.
PLoS One. 2025 Aug 21;20(8):e0330461. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0330461. eCollection 2025.
Studying land use changes caused by human economic activities is beneficial for sustainable growth, making it a global research hotspot. In this study, we used Landsat Thematic Mapper images and statistical yearbooks from 1986, 1995, 2000, 2007, 2010, and 2020 to obtain grid data on the land use status of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRR), from which vector data reflecting socioeconomic information were derived. We introduced models on land use quantitative changes, dynamic indicators, and degree index to investigate spatiotemporal variations in land use in the TGRR over the past 30 years. Classified maps were generated using ARCGIS 10.8, and Landsat TM images were processed for accuracy using supervised classification techniques. Based on the region's status quo and the analytic hierarchy process, we constructed a land resource carrying ability evaluation indicator model considering social, economic, population, and ecological carrying abilities, introducing a mean-square mistake decision-making approach to determine indicator weights. Our results indicate significant changes in land types within the TGRR from 1986 to 2020, with decreases in arable land, forest land, and grassland, while water bodies, building land, and unused land increased. The change rates varied significantly among different land types, reflecting rapid development, especially between 1995 and 2000. Additionally, our analysis delves into the underlying mechanisms driving these changes, providing insights into how different factors influence spatial-temporal evolution of land use and land carrying capacity, crucial for developing optimization strategies aimed at promoting sustainable growth and efficient use of land resources in the TGRR. This study offers a comprehensive analysis of the TGRR's land resource carrying ability, serving as a reference for sustainable land use.
研究人类经济活动引起的土地利用变化有利于可持续发展，使其成为全球研究热点。在本研究中，我们使用了1986年、1995年、2000年、2007年、2010年和2020年的陆地卫星专题制图仪图像和统计年鉴，以获取三峡库区土地利用状况的网格数据，并从中得出反映社会经济信息的矢量数据。我们引入了土地利用定量变化、动态指标和程度指数模型，以研究三峡库区过去30年土地利用的时空变化。使用ARCGIS 10.8生成分类地图，并采用监督分类技术对陆地卫星TM图像进行精度处理。基于该地区的现状和层次分析法，我们构建了一个考虑社会、经济、人口和生态承载能力的土地资源承载能力评价指标模型，并引入均方误差决策方法来确定指标权重。我们的结果表明，1986年至2020年三峡库区土地类型发生了显著变化，耕地、林地和草地减少，而水体、建设用地和未利用土地增加。不同土地类型的变化率差异显著，反映出快速发展，尤其是在1995年至2000年之间。此外，我们的分析深入探讨了驱动这些变化的潜在机制，揭示了不同因素如何影响土地利用和土地承载能力的时空演变，这对于制定旨在促进三峡库区可持续发展和土地资源高效利用的优化策略至关重要。本研究对三峡库区土地资源承载能力进行了全面分析，为土地可持续利用提供了参考。
