Yang Zhaoyang, Chen Zhi, Lee Kenneth
Department of Building, Civil, and Environmental Engineering, Concordia University, Montreal H3G 1M8, Canada.
Kenneth Lee Research Inc, Halifax, Nova Scotia B3H 4H4, Canada.
Environ Sci Technol. 2025 Sep 9;59(35):18870-18880. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.5c05850. Epub 2025 Aug 22.
Amid growing concerns about oil spills in vulnerable Arctic and sub-Arctic regions driven by climate-induced ice retreat, this study presents the development and validation of the OSMT-ice model, an enhanced oil spill modeling system designed to predict the movement and fate of oil in ice-covered waters. The model incorporates ice-concentration-based (ICB) constraints to improve the accuracy of oil transport and weathering simulation under varying ice conditions. Using observational data from multiscale field experiments, including the FEX2009 spill in the Barents Sea and the mesoscale experiments in Svalbard, we evaluated the model's capability to simulate oil trajectories, mass balance, and oil property evolution. A comparative hindcast analysis, with and without ice-related inputs, demonstrates that incorporating ice data significantly enhances the performance of oil transport modeling. Through multiple simulation scenarios, the effectiveness of various combinations of ICB constraints and target components was assessed to identify the optimal approach for modeling oil fate in ice-covered waters. Our findings indicate that the "30/80" rule-of-thumb, originally used to model oil movement under varying ice cover, does not apply to oil fate modeling in ice conditions. In contrast, the newly proposed quadratic reduction method provides more reliable simulations of oil behavior in icy environments. The OSMT-ice model, with its enhanced weathering algorithms, offers a robust tool for assessing oil spill impacts in ice-covered waters, improving response strategies and risk assessments. This research contributes to advancing oil spill modeling in Arctic and Sub-Arctic regions, with practical implications for oil spill contingency planning.
在因气候导致的冰层消退而引发的对北极和亚北极脆弱地区石油泄漏的担忧日益加剧之际，本研究介绍了OSMT-ice模型的开发与验证。该模型是一个增强型溢油模拟系统，旨在预测冰封水域中石油的移动和归宿。该模型纳入了基于冰浓度（ICB）的约束条件，以提高在不同冰情下石油运输和风化模拟的准确性。利用多尺度现场实验的观测数据，包括巴伦支海的FEX2009溢油事故和斯瓦尔巴群岛的中尺度实验，我们评估了该模型模拟油轨迹、质量平衡和油品性质演变的能力。一项有无冰相关输入的对比后报分析表明，纳入冰数据显著提高了石油运输建模的性能。通过多个模拟场景，评估了ICB约束条件和目标组分各种组合的有效性，以确定冰封水域中石油归宿建模的最佳方法。我们的研究结果表明，最初用于模拟不同冰盖下石油移动的“30/80”经验法则不适用于冰情下的石油归宿建模。相比之下，新提出的二次削减方法能更可靠地模拟冰环境中石油的行为。OSMT-ice模型及其增强的风化算法为评估冰封水域的溢油影响、改进应对策略和风险评估提供了一个强大的工具。这项研究有助于推进北极和亚北极地区的溢油建模，对溢油应急计划具有实际意义。
