Lu Zhenyi, Yang Shujun, Dai Mengqi, Wu Guixiang, Wang Fabao, Zhang Kai
Department of Otolaryngology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui, China.
Department of Otolaryngology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical University, Bengbu, Anhui, China.
Front Public Health. 2025 Aug 7;13:1623089. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1623089. eCollection 2025.
Nasopharyngeal carcinoma attributable to alcohol use (NPC-AU) contributes substantially to global cancer mortality and disability, yet its temporal and geographic patterns remain incompletely described.
To assess the global, regional, and national burden of NPC-AU from 1990 to 2021 and project trends through 2040.
Using GBD 2021 data, global, regional, and national age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life-years rates (ASDR) attributable to alcohol were evaluated. Trends were quantified by average annual percentage change (AAPC) and projections were generated using Bayesian age-period-cohort models.
From 1990 to 2021, global ASMR declined from 0.31 to 0.19 per 100,000 population (AAPC -1.66; 95% CI -1.79 to -1.52) and ASDR fell with an AAPC of -1.72 (95% CI -1.87 to -1.57). Male ASMR decreased from 0.42 to 0.27 per 100,000 (AAPC -1.60), and female ASMR from 0.21 to 0.12 per 100,000 (AAPC -2.25). High-middle SDI regions saw ASMR drop from 0.50 to 0.28 per 100,000 (AAPC -1.97), whereas low-middle SDI regions experienced an increase from 0.09 to 0.11 per 100,000 (AAPC 0.72). Regionally, East Asia's ASMR declined at an AAPC of -2.70, Southern Latin America at -3.13, and Southeast Asia increased at 1.76. Age-specific peaks in ASMR shifted from 55-59 and 65-69 years in 1990 to 65-69 and 70-74 years in 2021. Projections forecast male ASMR of 0.35 per 100,000 (95% UI 0.03-0.67) and female ASMR of 0.02 per 100,000 (95% UI 0.00-0.04) by 2040.
Although global ASMR and ASDR for NPC-AU declined markedly from 1990 to 2021, rising burdens in lower-SDI regions, persistent male predominance, and shifting peaks to older age groups highlight the need for targeted alcohol-control policies and age-tailored screening.
酒精所致鼻咽癌（NPC-AU）对全球癌症死亡率和残疾率有重大影响，但其时间和地理模式仍未得到充分描述。
评估1990年至2021年全球、区域和国家层面NPC-AU的负担，并预测到2040年的趋势。
使用全球疾病负担研究（GBD）2021数据，评估全球、区域和国家层面归因于酒精的年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）和伤残调整生命年率（ASDR）。趋势通过平均年度百分比变化（AAPC）进行量化，并使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型进行预测。
1990年至2021年，全球ASMR从每10万人0.31降至0.19（AAPC -1.66；95%CI -1.79至-1.52），ASDR以-1.72的AAPC下降（95%CI -1.87至-1.57）。男性ASMR从每10万人0.42降至0.27（AAPC -1.60），女性ASMR从每10万人0.21降至0.12（AAPC -2.25）。高中等社会人口指数（SDI）地区的ASMR从每10万人0.50降至0.28（AAPC -1.97），而低中等SDI地区则从每10万人0.09增至0.11（AAPC 0.72）。在区域层面，东亚的ASMR以-2.70的AAPC下降，拉丁美洲南部为-3.13，东南亚则以1.76的AAPC上升。ASMR的年龄特异性峰值从1990年的55-59岁和65-69岁转移至2021年的65-69岁和70-74岁。预测显示，到2040年男性ASMR为每10万人0.35（95%不确定区间0.03-0.67），女性ASMR为每10万人0.02（95%不确定区间0.00-0.04）。
尽管1990年至2021年全球NPC-AU的ASMR和ASDR显著下降，但低SDI地区负担上升、男性主导地位持续存在以及峰值向老年群体转移，凸显了制定针对性酒精控制政策和按年龄定制筛查的必要性。
