The Effects of Socioeconomic Contextual Factors on Racial Differences in Foster Care Placement Stability.

This study investigated how county- and state-level socioeconomic factors influence racial differences in placement stability outcomes for children in foster care. Using a sample drawn from the Adoption and Foster Care Analysis and Reporting System (AFCARS) covering 2012-2020, we employed linear mixed modeling (LMMs) to nest individual- and case-level data within counties and states. Our analysis focused on Black and White children, examining how variables such as poverty, unemployment, public welfare expenditures, residential mobility, and family structure affect the number of placement moves experienced by children. The findings indicated that Black children experience higher rates of placement instability compared to White children, although the gap narrows over time. Key factors associated with improved stability included county-administered child welfare systems and higher rates of multigenerational households and owner-occupied housing, particularly benefiting Black children. In contrast, higher levels of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) participation and increased residential mobility were linked to greater instability. The implementation of program improvement plans (PIPs) during the third round of the Child and Family Services Reviews (CFSR-3) produced mixed outcomes, with PIPs contributing to a reduction in the racial gap primarily by increasing placement moves for White children. These findings underscore the importance of analyzing data by race and incorporating broader socioeconomic contexts into child welfare improvement strategies, while also emphasizing the need for localized, context-sensitive approaches to improve placement stability.