Fraga Helder, Serra Emanuele, Guimarães Nathalie, Crespo Nazaret, Fernandes António, Menz Christoph, Santos João A
Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences (CITAB), Institute for Innovation, Capacity Building, and Sustainability of Agri-Food Production (Inov4Agro), University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro (UTAD), P.O. Box 1013, 5000-801 Vila Real, Portugal.
Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Sassari, Viale Italia 39A, 07100 Sassari, Italy.
Plants (Basel). 2025 Aug 8;14(16):2466. doi: 10.3390/plants14162466.
Climate change is expected to significantly reshape viticulture across traditional wine regions, including the Douro winemaking region (DWR) in northern Portugal. This study evaluates projected impacts of climate change on key viticultural parameters, such as grapevine yield, phenology, and potential alcohol content, using an ensemble of high-resolution downscaled climate simulations for the recent-past (1986 to 2015) and for two emission scenarios: SSP1-2.6 (low-emissions pathway) and SSP5-8.5 (high-emissions pathway), for mid-century (2041-2070). Spatial and temporal analyses reveal a consistent and robust signal of change across all indicators, with magnitude and variability increasing under SSP5-8.5. Yield projections indicate a widespread decline across the region (-1 to -3 t/ha), especially under SSP5-8.5, with particularly strong reductions in currently high-yielding areas, such as Douro-Superior. This spatial heterogeneity suggests heightened vulnerability throughout the DWR, underscoring the importance of targeted adaptation strategies. Phenological analysis shows a marked advancement in flowering dates, shifting by up to 30 days earlier in the season, amplified under SSP5-8.5. These changes could impact grape development, increase exposure to early-season frost events, and disrupt traditional vineyard management schedules. Furthermore, potential alcohol content is projected to rise substantially across the region, with increases exceeding 2% vol in some areas under the more severe scenario. This trend may challenge wine typicity, regulatory classifications and geographical boundaries of the denominations of origin, and quality control, requiring both vineyard and oenological adaptations to manage elevated sugar levels. These findings point to significant, spatially variable climate-driven transformations in Douro viticulture. While some impacts may be partially mitigated under SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5 may require urgent adaptation to preserve wine quality, socioeconomic sustainability, and regional identity.
预计气候变化将显著重塑包括葡萄牙北部杜罗河酿酒区（DWR）在内的传统葡萄酒产区的葡萄栽培。本研究利用一组高分辨率降尺度气候模拟数据，评估了气候变化对关键葡萄栽培参数的预计影响，这些参数包括葡萄产量、物候期和潜在酒精含量，模拟数据涵盖近期（1986年至2015年）以及两种排放情景：SSP1-2.6（低排放路径）和SSP5-8.5（高排放路径），时间跨度为本世纪中叶（2041年至2070年）。空间和时间分析揭示了所有指标变化的一致且强劲的信号，在SSP5-8.5情景下，变化幅度和变异性均有所增加。产量预测表明，整个地区产量将普遍下降（-1至-3吨/公顷）, 特别是在SSP5-8.5情景下，目前高产地区如杜罗河上游地区的产量将大幅下降。这种空间异质性表明整个杜罗河酿酒区的脆弱性加剧，凸显了针对性适应策略的重要性。物候分析表明，开花日期显著提前，季节内提前多达30天，在SSP5-8.5情景下更为明显。这些变化可能影响葡萄发育，增加早季霜冻事件的影响，并打乱传统葡萄园管理时间表。此外，预计整个地区潜在酒精含量将大幅上升，在更严峻的情景下，一些地区的增幅超过2%（体积分数）。这一趋势可能对葡萄酒典型性、监管分类、原产地命名的地理界限以及质量控制构成挑战，需要葡萄园和酿酒工艺都进行调整以应对糖分升高的问题。这些发现表明，杜罗河葡萄栽培将受到气候驱动的重大、空间可变的转变。虽然在SSP1-2.6情景下，一些影响可能会得到部分缓解，但SSP5-8.5情景可能需要紧急适应措施，以保护葡萄酒质量、社会经济可持续性和地区特色。
