Huang Joh-Jong, Lu Shu-Jen, Huang Min-Wei
Department of Gerontological and Long-Term Care Business, Fooyin University, Kaohsiung City, 83102, Taiwan.
Department of Family Medicine, Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, Kaohsiung City, Taiwan.
BMC Psychiatry. 2025 Aug 29;25(1):841. doi: 10.1186/s12888-025-07252-x.
BACKGROUND: The high rate of repeat attempts among individuals who have previously attempted suicide presents a critical challenge in public health and suicide prevention. While early and targeted intervention is crucial for this high-risk group, effectively identifying those most likely to re-attempt is a persistent difficulty, especially when public health resources are limited. This creates a pressing need for accurate and practical risk assessment tools. This study aims to address this gap by using machine learning to analyze a nationwide suicide surveillance database to identify key predictors of repeat suicide attempts and develop a robust predictive model to aid in resource allocation and early intervention. METHODS: This study analyzed data from 32,701 individuals, encompassing 31 features, recorded in Taiwan's National Suicide Surveillance System for 2020. We employed binary decision tree regression with multiple feature selection techniques to identify significant predictors of recurrent suicide attempts. A prediction model was then developed without requiring biological samples. RESULTS: History of mental illness, specific age groups, and supervision status of mentally ill patients emerged as primary influences on repeated suicide attempts. The prediction model achieved 66.3% accuracy in identifying potential repeat attempters, with a 57.9% success rate for predicting re-suicide events. These findings align with recent literature on suicide recurrence risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a practical risk assessment tool that enables early intervention for high-risk individuals without invasive biological sampling. The insights offer valuable guidance for government suicide prevention policies, especially when prioritizing cases with limited resources. Future enhancements through broader data integration and interdisciplinary cooperation could establish a more comprehensive prevention system to reduce the societal impact of suicidal behavior. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Not applicable as this was a retrospective database analysis rather than a randomized controlled trial.
背景:既往有自杀未遂经历的个体中重复自杀未遂率很高,这给公共卫生和自杀预防带来了严峻挑战。虽然早期和有针对性的干预对这一高危群体至关重要,但有效识别最有可能再次尝试自杀的人一直是个难题,尤其是在公共卫生资源有限的情况下。这就迫切需要准确且实用的风险评估工具。本研究旨在通过使用机器学习分析全国性自杀监测数据库来填补这一空白,以识别重复自杀未遂的关键预测因素,并开发一个强大的预测模型,以协助资源分配和早期干预。 方法:本研究分析了台湾2020年国家自杀监测系统中记录的32701名个体的数据,涵盖31个特征。我们采用二元决策树回归和多种特征选择技术来识别复发性自杀未遂的重要预测因素。然后在无需生物样本的情况下开发了一个预测模型。 结果:精神疾病史、特定年龄组以及精神病患者的监管状况是重复自杀未遂的主要影响因素。该预测模型在识别潜在的重复自杀未遂者方面准确率达到66.3%,预测再次自杀事件的成功率为57.9%。这些发现与近期关于自杀复发风险因素的文献一致。 结论:本研究提供了一种实用的风险评估工具,能够在不进行侵入性生物采样的情况下对高危个体进行早期干预。这些见解为政府自杀预防政策提供了有价值的指导,尤其是在资源有限时对病例进行优先级排序。通过更广泛的数据整合和跨学科合作进行未来的改进,可以建立一个更全面的预防系统,以减少自杀行为对社会的影响。 试验注册:由于这是一项回顾性数据库分析而非随机对照试验,因此不适用。
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