O'Dea Aaron, Sellers Andrew J, Pérez-Medina Carmen, Pardo Díaz Javier, Guzmán Bloise Alexandra, Pöhlker Christopher, Chiliński Michał T, Aardema Hedy M, Cybulski Jonathan D, Heins Lena, Paton Steven R, Slagter Hans A, Schiebel Ralf, Haug Gerald H
Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Balboa 0843, Republic of Panamá.
Sistema Nacional de Investigación, Panamá, Republic of Panamá.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2025 Sep 9;122(36):e2512056122. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2512056122. Epub 2025 Sep 2.
The Gulf of Panama's (GOP) seasonal upwelling system has consistently delivered cool, nutrient-rich waters via northerly trade winds every January-April for at least 40 y. Here, we document the failure of this normally highly predictable phenomenon in 2025. Data suggest that the cause was a reduction in Panama wind-jet frequency, duration, and strength, possibly related to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) position during the 2024-2025 La Niña, though the mechanisms remain unclear. Nevertheless, the consequences are likely significant, including decreases in fisheries productivity and exacerbated thermal stress on corals that typically benefit from upwelling's cooling. This event underscores how climate disruption can threaten wind-driven tropical upwelling systems, which remain poorly monitored and studied despite their importance to ecology and coastal economies.
巴拿马湾（GOP）季节性上升流系统在每年1月至4月期间，至少40年来一直通过北风信风输送凉爽、营养丰富的海水。在此，我们记录了2025年这一通常高度可预测的现象未能出现的情况。数据表明，其原因是巴拿马风喷流的频率、持续时间和强度降低，这可能与2024 - 2025年拉尼娜现象期间的热带辐合带（ITCZ）位置有关，不过具体机制仍不清楚。然而，其后果可能很严重，包括渔业生产力下降，以及通常受益于上升流降温作用的珊瑚所承受的热应力加剧。这一事件凸显了气候紊乱如何能够威胁由风驱动的热带上升流系统，尽管这些系统对生态和沿海经济很重要，但目前监测和研究仍很不足。
