Mukhanbetkaliyev Yersyn, Yessembekova Gulzhan, Mukhanbetkaliyeva Aizada, Akmambayeva Botakoz, Kadyrov Ablaikhan, Uskenov Rashit, Bostanova Saule, Ashirbek Alibek, Korennoy Fedor, Abdrakhmanov Sarsenbay
S. Seifullin Kazakh Agro Technical Research University, Astana, Kazakhstan.
Federal Center for Animal Health (FGBI ARRIAH), Vladimir, Russia.
Transbound Emerg Dis. 2025 Aug 21;2025:5536099. doi: 10.1155/tbed/5536099. eCollection 2025.
Equine herpesvirus 1 (EHV-1) is one of the most dangerous viral diseases affecting ungulates, and is characterized by a wide range of clinical manifestations in horses, including rhinopneumonia, abortion, neonatal death, and myeloencephalopathy. It is well known for causing mass abortions in mares and respiratory diseases in young animals. Once introduced into a horse breeding farm of any type, EHV-1 tends to establish as a persistent infection. The disease is reported on nearly all continents and causes substantial annual economic losses to horse breeding operations. In Kazakhstan, 34 EHV-1 outbreaks were recorded between 2017 and 2024. The objective of our study was to identify potential risk factors associated with the presence of EHV-1 within the study area. We employed a forest-based classification and regression approach to explore a set of sociodemographic, environmental, and transportation-related factors associated with the presence or absence of EHV-1 at the level of administrative regions. A standard set of explanatory variables was supplemented with horse population density, derived from demographic data of horse-breeding farms obtained through a nationwide survey. Modeling results indicated that the most significant factor influencing EHV-1 presence was the average wind speed in January, followed by road density, the number of horse farms, and the number of livestock-related facilities targeted for surveillance. Horse population density was found to be among the least significant variable in the model. The resulting risk map highlights areas with a higher suitability for EHV-1 emergence, primarily located in regions with moderate-to-high horse population densities and characterized by steppe- and grassland-type landscapes, which are predominantly found in the northern, central, and south-western parts of Kazakhstan. These findings can serve as a foundation for further investigation into the spatial patterns of EHV-1 in the country and for enhancing veterinary surveillance and control measures.
马疱疹病毒1型（EHV-1）是影响有蹄类动物的最危险的病毒性疾病之一，其特征是马会出现多种临床表现，包括鼻肺炎、流产、新生驹死亡和脑脊髓炎。它因导致母马大量流产和幼畜呼吸道疾病而闻名。一旦引入任何类型的养马场，EHV-1往往会形成持续性感染。几乎在所有大陆都有该疾病的报道，每年给养马业造成巨大经济损失。在哈萨克斯坦，2017年至2024年间记录了34起EHV-1疫情。我们研究的目的是确定与研究区域内EHV-1存在相关的潜在风险因素。我们采用基于森林的分类和回归方法，探索了一系列与行政区层面EHV-1存在与否相关的社会人口、环境和交通相关因素。一组标准的解释变量补充了通过全国性调查获得的养马场人口统计数据得出的马种群密度。建模结果表明，影响EHV-1存在的最显著因素是1月份的平均风速，其次是道路密度、马场数量和目标监测的与牲畜相关设施的数量。马种群密度被发现是模型中最不显著的变量之一。生成的风险地图突出了EHV-1出现适宜性较高的地区，主要位于马种群密度中到高的地区，其特征为草原和草地类型的景观，主要分布在哈萨克斯坦的北部、中部和西南部。这些发现可为进一步调查该国EHV-1的空间模式以及加强兽医监测和控制措施奠定基础。
