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基于人群的城市洪水空间风险评估:密歇根州底特律市洪水热线的结果

Crowd-based spatial risk assessment of urban flooding: Results from a municipal flood hotline in Detroit, MI.

作者信息

Larson Peter S, Thorsby Jamie Steis, Liu Xinyu, King Eleanor, Miller Carol J

机构信息

Social Environment and Health, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA.

Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA.

出版信息

J Flood Risk Manag. 2024 Jun;17(2). doi: 10.1111/jfr3.12974. Epub 2024 Feb 13.

Abstract

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, raising the risk of urban flood disasters. This study uses a crowd-sourced municipal call database to characterize the spatial distribution of flood risk in Detroit, MI. Call data including dates and addresses were obtained from the City of Detroit Department of Public Works for 2021. Calls were mapped and aggregated to census tract counts and merged with neighborhood-level data. Associations of predictors with flood calls were tested using spatial regression models. Flooding calls were located throughout the city but were concentrated in specific areas. Multivariate models of census tract level call counts indicated that increased poverty and Black, immigrant, and older residents were positively associated with flood calls, while increased elevation was associated with protective effects. Longer distances from waste water interceptors were associated with higher risk for calls. Crowd-sourced flood hotline call data can be used for effective spatial flood risk assessment. Though flooding occurs throughout the city of Detroit, infrastructural, neighborhood, and household factors influence flooding extent. Limitations included the self-reported nature of calls. Future modeling efforts might include input from local stakeholders to improve spatial risk assessment.

摘要

气候变化正在增加极端降水事件的频率和强度,提高城市洪水灾害的风险。本研究使用众包的市政呼叫数据库来描述密歇根州底特律市洪水风险的空间分布。包括日期和地址在内的呼叫数据来自底特律市公共工程部2021年的数据。呼叫数据被绘制并汇总到人口普查区计数,并与社区层面的数据合并。使用空间回归模型测试预测因素与洪水呼叫之间的关联。洪水呼叫遍布整个城市,但集中在特定区域。人口普查区层面呼叫计数的多变量模型表明,贫困加剧以及黑人、移民和老年居民与洪水呼叫呈正相关,而海拔升高则具有保护作用。与污水截流器的距离越远,呼叫的风险越高。众包洪水热线呼叫数据可用于有效的空间洪水风险评估。尽管底特律全市都发生洪水,但基础设施、社区和家庭因素会影响洪水范围。局限性包括呼叫的自我报告性质。未来的建模工作可能包括纳入当地利益相关者的意见,以改进空间风险评估。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bd66/12392308/906a8f54e51d/nihms-2077247-f0001.jpg

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