Elsner Anne, Mergl Roland, Allgaier Antje-Kathrin, Hegerl Ulrich
German Foundation for Depression and Suicide Prevention, Leipzig, Germany.
University of the Bundeswehr Munich, Institute of Psychology, Neubiberg, Germany.
PLoS One. 2025 Sep 8;20(9):e0331784. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0331784. eCollection 2025.
Contrary to the cautions of many, suicide rates during the first COVID-19 pandemic lockdown in Germany did not rise, but declined. With the accessibility of the 2021 weekly suicide data, it was possible to analyze suicide rates and the proportion of suicide methods during the lockdown and non-lockdown phases and during the first 21 months of the pandemic compared to the previous ten years. An interrupted time-series analysis based on a linear regression was used. For the comparisons of predicted and observed suicide rates, excess suicide mortality rates (ESMR) were chosen among others. Changes in the choice of method were analyzed by comparing the rates of different methods in lockdown- and non-lockdown phases. Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, suicide mortality in 2020/2021 was significantly higher than expected (ESMR = 1.0161; 95% CI: 1.0005; 1.0317). Registered suicide mortality was lower than expected during the lockdown phases in these years (ESMR = 0.9477; 95% CI: 0.9128; 0.9825) and higher during non-lockdown phases (ESMR = 1.0353; 95% CI: 1.0178; 1.0528). A MANOVA revealed a significant difference of the absolute number of suicides between lockdown and non-lockdown periods (factor "lockdown": F(1,100) = 9.47; p = 0.003). A shift of suicide methods in the comparison of these periods could not be detected. Our results are in line with the rise in yearly absolute numbers of suicides in 2022 in Germany and illustrate that even though suicide rates declined during lockdowns, there was a general rise since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, especially during the non-lockdown periods. This hints towards a "postponement effect", probably as loosening of the lockdown restrictions makes suicide methods more easily accessible and more suicides than expected are present in the following non-lockdown periods. More research is needed to better understand the mechanisms influencing suicidality during lockdowns and the COVID-19 pandemic in general.
与许多人的警告相反，德国在首次新冠疫情封锁期间自杀率并未上升，反而下降了。有了2021年每周自杀数据，就可以分析封锁期和非封锁期以及疫情头21个月与前十年相比的自杀率和自杀方式比例。采用了基于线性回归的中断时间序列分析。在预测自杀率与观察到的自杀率的比较中，选择了超额自杀死亡率（ESMR）等指标。通过比较封锁期和非封锁期不同自杀方式的发生率，分析了自杀方式的变化。自新冠疫情开始以来，2020/2021年的自杀死亡率显著高于预期（ESMR = 1.0161；95%置信区间：1.0005；1.0317）。在这些年份的封锁期内，登记的自杀死亡率低于预期（ESMR = 0.9477；95%置信区间：0.9128；0.9825），在非封锁期则高于预期（ESMR = 1.0353；95%置信区间：1.0178；1.0528）。多变量方差分析显示，封锁期和非封锁期之间自杀绝对数存在显著差异（因素“封锁”：F(1,100) = 9.47；p = 0.003）。在这些时期的比较中未发现自杀方式的转变。我们的结果与2022年德国每年自杀绝对数的上升一致，并表明尽管封锁期间自杀率下降，但自新冠疫情开始以来总体呈上升趋势，尤其是在非封锁期。这暗示了一种 “延迟效应”，可能是因为封锁限制的放松使自杀方式更容易获得，且在随后的非封锁期出现了比预期更多的自杀情况。需要更多研究来更好地理解封锁期间及整个新冠疫情期间影响自杀倾向的机制。
