Epidemiological patterns of SARS-CoV-2 reinfections in Espírito Santo, Brazil: A population-based analysis using integrated surveillance and vaccination data.

BACKGROUND

Reinfections with SARS-CoV-2 have gained increasing relevance in the context of emerging immune-evasive variants and waning population immunity. Understanding their frequency and distribution is essential to guide public health strategies, particularly in middle-income countries. This study investigates the epidemiological patterns of SARS-CoV-2 reinfections in Espírito Santo, Brazil, using integrated notification and vaccination databases.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective population-based study using state-level surveillance and immunization data from September 2020 to February 2023. Deterministic record linkage was performed to identify reinfections based on four hierarchical definitions, all requiring a minimum 90-day interval between episodes. Reinfection rates were analyzed by demographic, temporal, regional, and vaccination-related variables. Specific contexts such as Indigenous communities and long-term care facilities were also explored.

RESULTS

Reinfection estimates varied widely depending on the definition used-from 0.27% under the strictest criteria to 9.72% under the most inclusive. Reinfections were more common among women and adults aged 30-49 years. The highest proportions occurred during the second and fourth waves, driven by the Gamma and Omicron variants, respectively. Reinfection rates were particularly elevated in Indigenous communities (16.5%) and long-term care facilities (14%), highlighting structural vulnerabilities. In contrast, no increased reinfection risk was observed among incarcerated populations, possibly due to data limitations. Reinfections were frequent among vaccinated individuals, especially those who had received two doses without boosters. However, this likely reflects exposure patterns and time since vaccination, rather than reduced vaccine effectiveness. Brazil's use of inactivated-virus vaccines, such as CoronaVac, in the early phases may also have influenced susceptibility. Reinfections occurred predominantly after the emergence of Omicron, consistent with findings from national and global studies.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows that the cumulative frequency of reinfections increased over the study period, reaching up to ~10% under the most inclusive definition, while remaining modest under the strictest criteria. These findings reinforce the importance of continued genomic surveillance, timely booster campaigns, and targeted interventions in high-risk environments. The integration of multiple data sources and the use of variable reinfection definitions allowed for a nuanced analysis, offering valuable insights to inform public health planning in Brazil and similar contexts.