Trends in the incidence of lung cancer in never smokers in Eastern China: a retrospective population-based cohort study using regional electronic health records.

OBJECTIVES

Although lung cancer in never smokers (LCNSs) accounts for an estimated 25% of all lung cancer cases, the temporal trends in LCNS incidence and its broader epidemiological patterns remain poorly understood. Our study examines the temporal trends in LCNS incidence and analyses key epidemiological characteristics, specifically, the trends in mortality rates, survival rates and changes in age at onset to illuminate the reasons for temporal trends in LCNS incidence.

DESIGN

Retrospective population-based cohort study.

SETTING

Regional electronic health record (EHR) database linked to the cancer registry in eastern China.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 1 080 317 adults who have never smoked were included, among whom 4061 incident lung cancer cases were identified between 1 January 2009 and 31 December 2020.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The temporal trends in LCNS incidence in a large population-based dynamic cohort were estimated, overall and separately by sex, age group and histological types. The broader epidemiological patterns of LCNS, such as trends in mortality rates, survival rates and changes in age at onset, were analysed.

RESULTS

From 2009 through 2020, the incidence of LCNS among men increased significantly from 9.51 to 43.4 per 100 000 (average annual percentage change (AAPC) 10.51%; 95% CI (6.88% to 14.26%)) whereas a sharper increase was observed among women from 3.57 to 51.68 per 100 000 (AAPC 22.39%; 95% CI (18.36% to 26.55%)). The 2-year survival of LCNS improved from 39% in 2010 to 64% in 2018 for men, and from 57% in 2009 to 86% in 2020 for women, while the mortality from LCNS remained stable from 2014 through 2020 (men: AAPC -1.77%; 95% CI (-8.95% to 5.97%); women: AAPC 2.19%; 95% CI (-4.09% to 8.89%)). The increasing trend in LCNS incidence was observed across most of the age groups except the elderly population aged ≥85 years in both sexes and the men aged 45-54 years, but the increase was most evident in the younger population aged <45 years (men: AAPC 21.10%; 95% CI (3.57% to 41.60%); women: AAPC 32.05%; 95% CI (23.73% to 40.92%)). The incidence of adenocarcinoma increased sharply in both sexes, whereas the incidence of non-adenocarcinoma histological types either increased slightly or remained stable. The standardised average age at onset of LCNS decreased significantly over time among women (β=-0.58, robust SE=0.16, p=0.005) but not among men (β=-0.21, SE=0.15, p=0.189).

CONCLUSIONS

There is a substantial increase in LCNS incidence, especially among women and young populations. However, the reason for these observed trends remains unclear and warrants investigation.