Hsieh Tung-Yu, Li Feng, Huang Shih-Li, Chien Ching-Te
School of Food and Bioengineering, Fujian Polytechnic Normal University, Fuqing 350300, China.
Fujian Universities and Colleges Engineering Research Center of Modern Facility Agriculture, Fujian Polytechnic Normal University, Fuqing 350300, China.
Plants (Basel). 2025 Aug 26;14(17):2665. doi: 10.3390/plants14172665.
Climate change is reshaping plant reproductive processes, particularly at the vulnerable seed germination stage. This study examines the germination responses of four species ( and ) under controlled experimental conditions, integrating empirical germination data with classifier modeling to predict species-specific responses under future climate scenarios. Unlike traditional species distribution models (SDMs), our classifier approach incorporates physiological dormancy mechanisms and key environmental cues such as chilling requirements, temperature fluctuations, and drought stress. Results reveal significant interspecific differences: exhibited strong ecological plasticity, maintaining stable germination under warming and drought, while displayed extreme sensitivity to warming, with germination dropping below 25% due to its strict chilling requirement. showed latitude-dependent vulnerability, with southern populations experiencing reduced germination under warming conditions, and demonstrated complex dormancy patterns with higher germination at high elevations. The predictive accuracy of our models was validated against long-term field data, underscoring their robustness in forecasting climate-induced germination shifts. These findings highlight the need for targeted breeding programs to develop cultivars with reduced chilling requirements and suggest as a strong candidate for ecological restoration under future warming scenarios. By refining climate impact assessments through physiological modeling, this study provides valuable insights for kiwifruit conservation, agricultural adaptation, and broader plant-climate interactions under global warming.
气候变化正在重塑植物的繁殖过程，尤其是在脆弱的种子萌发阶段。本研究在可控实验条件下考察了四个物种（和）的萌发反应，将实证萌发数据与分类模型相结合，以预测未来气候情景下的物种特异性反应。与传统的物种分布模型（SDMs）不同，我们的分类方法纳入了生理休眠机制以及关键环境线索，如冷处理需求、温度波动和干旱胁迫。结果显示出显著的种间差异：表现出很强的生态可塑性，在变暖和干旱条件下保持稳定萌发，而对变暖表现出极端敏感性，由于其严格的冷处理需求，萌发率降至25%以下。表现出纬度依赖性的脆弱性，南方种群在变暖条件下萌发率降低，并且表现出复杂的休眠模式，在高海拔地区萌发率更高。我们模型的预测准确性通过长期田间数据得到验证，强调了它们在预测气候诱导的萌发变化方面的稳健性。这些发现突出了开展针对性育种计划以培育冷处理需求降低的品种的必要性，并表明是未来变暖情景下生态恢复的有力候选物种。通过生理建模完善气候影响评估，本研究为猕猴桃保护、农业适应以及全球变暖下更广泛的植物 - 气候相互作用提供了有价值的见解。
