Sesay Gibril, Kindong Richard, Gao Chunxia, Zhao Shiqing, Tian Siquan
College of Marine Living Resource Sciences and Management, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai, 201306, China.
College of Marine Living Resource Sciences and Management, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai, 201306, China; Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, 201306, China; Key Laboratory of Oceanic Fisheries Exploration, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Shanghai, 201306, China; National Engineering Research Centre for Oceanic Fisheries, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai, China.
Mar Environ Res. 2025 Sep 8;212:107534. doi: 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107534.
Climate change is reshaping marine ecosystems, yet its effects on the life-history traits of commercially important fish species remain insufficiently understood. This study investigates the impact of environmental factors on the growth and survival of silver croaker (Pennahia argentata) in the southern waters of Zhejiang, China, a key fishing ground in the East China Sea. A Life-History Trait Composite Index (LTCI), incorporating von Bertalanffy growth rate (K), mortality (M), average length (L), and asymptotic length (L∞), was used to assess responses to sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), dissolved oxygen (DO), and pH across three zones (South, Central, North) from 2015 to 2022. Analyses using Spearman correlation, cross-correlation functions (CCF), Generalized Additive Models (GAM), and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) revealed zone-specific environmental drivers. pH and SSS emerged as primary influences: pH showed a strong positive correlation with LTCI in the South Zone (r = 0.79) and a moderate effect in the Central Zone (r = 0.44), while SSS had a strong negative impact in the South (r = -0.86) and moderate impact in the Central Zone (r = -0.25). Spearman results also showed contrasting SSS-LTCI correlations, ranging from strongly negative in the South (ρ = -0.89) to positive in the North (ρ = 0.37). GAMs identified nonlinear environmental effects, with SST exerting a significant negative influence in the Central Zone (p = 0.009) and pH having a positive effect (p = 0.046). In the North Zone, delayed oxygen stress and high sea surface salinity corresponded to a 47 % decline in fish size. These results underscore the importance of continuous ecosystem monitoring and highlight pH, DO, and SSS as critical drivers of silver croaker productivity. Region-specific management strategies are recommended: habitat conservation in the South, sea surface salinity and oxygen monitoring in the North, and threshold-based protections in the Central Zone to support sustainable fisheries.
气候变化正在重塑海洋生态系统，但其对具有商业重要性的鱼类物种生活史特征的影响仍未得到充分了解。本研究调查了环境因素对中国浙江南部水域银鲳（彭纳银鲈）生长和存活的影响，浙江南部水域是东海的一个重要渔场。采用包含冯·贝塔朗菲生长率（K）、死亡率（M）、平均体长（L）和渐近体长（L∞）的生活史特征综合指数（LTCI），评估了2015年至2022年三个区域（南部、中部、北部）对海表温度（SST）、海表盐度（SSS）、溶解氧（DO）和pH值的响应。使用斯皮尔曼相关性、互相关函数（CCF）、广义相加模型（GAM）和人工神经网络（ANN）进行的分析揭示了特定区域的环境驱动因素。pH值和SSS是主要影响因素：pH值在南部区域与LTCI呈强正相关（r = 0.79），在中部区域有中等影响（r = 0.44），而SSS在南部有强烈负面影响（r = -0.86），在中部区域有中等影响（r = -0.25）。斯皮尔曼结果还显示了SSS与LTCI的对比相关性，从南部的强负相关（ρ = -0.89）到北部的正相关（ρ = 0.37）。GAM识别出非线性环境效应，SST在中部区域有显著负面影响（p = 0.009），pH值有正面影响（p = 0.046）。在北部区域，延迟的氧气胁迫和高海表盐度导致鱼类体型下降47%。这些结果强调了持续进行生态系统监测的重要性，并突出了pH值、DO和SSS是银鲳生产力的关键驱动因素。建议采取针对特定区域的管理策略：南部进行栖息地保护，北部进行海表盐度和氧气监测，中部区域进行基于阈值的保护，以支持可持续渔业。
