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拉丁美洲与高温相关的道路交通死亡人数的个体差异和城市层面差异。

Individual and city-level variations in heat-related road traffic deaths in Latin America.

作者信息

Hsu Cheng-Kai, Quistberg D Alex, Sánchez Brisa N, Kephart Josiah L, Bilal Usama, Gouveia Nelson, Ferrer Carolina Perez, Caiaffa Waleska T, de Lima Friche Amélia Augusta, Yannone Ignacio, Rodríguez Daniel A

机构信息

Department of City and Regional Planning and Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA.

Dornsife School of Public Health, Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA, USA.

出版信息

medRxiv. 2025 Sep 7:2025.09.05.25334734. doi: 10.1101/2025.09.05.25334734.

Abstract

Road-traffic mortality and extreme heat are two major urban health challenges, increasingly found to be associated. However, few studies have examined this association in Latin America-one of the world's most urbanized, fastest-motorizing region, with a high share of vulnerable road users-and even fewer have analyzed multiple cities across diverse climates and urban settings. Using temperature and road-traffic mortality data (2000-2019) from 272 cities in six Latin American countries, we conducted a time-stratified case-crossover study. The relative risks (RRs) of road-traffic mortality at the 95th and 99th temperature percentiles, compared to the minimum mortality temperature percentile, were 1.16 [95% CI: 1.14-1.19] and 1.18 [1.15-1.21], respectively. Risks were particularly high among adolescents, males, motorcyclists, bicyclists, and in cities with hotter climates and longer commutes. Policymakers in the tropical Global South should prioritize protecting vulnerable road users in peripheral communities, where many endure long, heat-exposed commutes in non-climate-controlled informal transport.

摘要

道路交通死亡率和极端高温是城市面临的两大主要健康挑战,越来越多的研究发现二者存在关联。然而,在拉丁美洲这一世界上城市化程度最高、机动车化速度最快、道路弱势群体比例高的地区,很少有研究探讨这种关联,而分析不同气候和城市环境下多个城市情况的研究更是少之又少。我们利用六个拉丁美洲国家272个城市的温度和道路交通死亡率数据(2000 - 2019年),开展了一项时间分层病例交叉研究。与最低死亡率温度百分位数相比,第95和第99温度百分位数下道路交通死亡率的相对风险(RRs)分别为1.16 [95%置信区间:1.14 - 1.19]和1.18 [1.15 - 1.21]。在青少年、男性、摩托车手、自行车骑行者以及气候较热、通勤时间较长的城市中,风险尤其高。热带地区的南半球政策制定者应优先保护周边社区的道路弱势群体,在这些社区,许多人乘坐无气候控制的非正规交通工具,忍受长时间暴露在高温下的通勤。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/542c/12425034/f9da51e12be9/nihpp-2025.09.05.25334734v1-f0001.jpg

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