Tao Yuhao, Liu Wendong, Wang Yin, Liang Shuyi, Wang Xiaochen, Li Zhifeng, Gu Wenxin, Liu Xin, Zeng Xinru, Bao Changjun
School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China.
Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, China.
Front Public Health. 2025 Sep 1;13:1662670. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1662670. eCollection 2025.
Severe Fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome (SFTS) has become a global public health concern in recent years. The main purpose of this study was to depict the epidemiological characteristics of SFTS in Jiangsu Province, China and evaluate the effects of meteorological factors on its dynamics.
Joinpoint regression and spatial methods were used to explore the epidemiological trends of SFTS. Distributed Lag Non-linear Models (DLNM) were employed to evaluate the regional specific effects of meteorological factors on SFTS epidemics.
Between 2014 and 2023, a total of 914 SFTS cases were reported in Jiangsu Province, with an average annual incidence of 0.11 per 100,000 population and an overall case fatality rate of 7.44%. Cases aged 50-79 years accounted for 83.48% (763/914) of the total cases. Most affected individuals were farmers (69.14%, 632/914). Joinpoint regression analysis revealed an increasing trend in the incidence rate of SFTS, with an Annual Percent Change of 26.68% ( < 0.001). The incidence presented marked seasonality, with the peak occurring between May and July. Nanjing and Huai'an were the major endemic regions, together accounting for 79.32% of the total cases in the province. DLNM results showed an inverted "V"-shaped relationship between weekly average temperature and the risk of SFTS incidence in Nanjing and Huai'an, with temperature inflection points of 22.4 °C and 19.2 °C, respectively. In both cities, lower temperatures (Nanjing: 3.35, 8.77 °C; Huai'an: 1.73, 7.15 °C) were associated with a reduced risk of SFTS incidence, whereas higher temperatures (Nanjing: 24.32, 28.05 °C; Huai'an: 23.89, 27.15 °C) were associated with an increased risk. However, excessively high temperatures can also lead to a decrease in the incidence of SFTS. Targeted strategies and measures should be taken to prevent its spread.
In conclusion, over the study period, SFTS incidence and geographic spread in Jiangsu Province showed an increasing trend. Temperature exerted a non-linear impact on the incidence of SFTS, characterized by notable lag effects.
近年来，发热伴血小板减少综合征（SFTS）已成为全球公共卫生关注的问题。本研究的主要目的是描述中国江苏省SFTS的流行病学特征，并评估气象因素对其动态变化的影响。
采用Joinpoint回归和空间分析方法探讨SFTS的流行病学趋势。运用分布滞后非线性模型（DLNM）评估气象因素对SFTS流行的区域特定影响。
2014年至2023年期间，江苏省共报告914例SFTS病例，年平均发病率为每10万人0.11例，总体病死率为7.44%。50 - 79岁的病例占总病例数的83.48%（763/914）。受影响的个体大多为农民（69.14%，632/914）。Joinpoint回归分析显示SFTS发病率呈上升趋势，年变化百分比为26.68%（P < 0.001）。发病率呈现明显的季节性，高峰出现在5月至7月。南京和淮安是主要流行地区，共占全省总病例数的79.32%。DLNM结果显示，南京和淮安的周平均气温与SFTS发病风险呈倒“V”形关系，温度拐点分别为22.4℃和19.2℃。在这两个城市，较低温度（南京：3.35、8.77℃；淮安：1.73、7.15℃）与SFTS发病风险降低相关，而较高温度（南京：24.32、28.05℃；淮安：23.89、27.15℃）与发病风险增加相关。然而，过高温度也可能导致SFTS发病率下降。应采取针对性策略和措施预防其传播。
总之，在研究期间，江苏省SFTS的发病率和地理传播呈上升趋势。温度对SFTS发病率产生非线性影响，具有明显的滞后效应。
