Spatial spillover effects of technological progress on energy intensity in China from the productivity improvement perspective.

Reducing energy intensity (EI) is essential for achieving sustainable human development, and technological progress (TP) plays a pivotal role in shaping changes in EI. This study employs inter-provincial panel data from China covering the period 2006-2021 and utilizes the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) to empirically examine the effects of TP on EI. Furthermore, it explores the mediating roles of the energy consumption structure and industrial structure in this relationship. The main findings are as follows: (1) EI in China exhibits significant positive spatial autocorrelation, indicating a geographically clustered distribution; (2) TP significantly reduces EI, and from a spatial perspective, it generates notable spillover effects that also reduce EI in neighboring regions; (3) The energy consumption structure serves as a significant mediating pathway through which TP reduces EI, while the industrial structure exhibits a masking effect; (4) Heterogeneity analysis indicates that localization disincentives are primarily driven by technical efficiency changes, while spatial spillover disincentives are mainly caused by technological changes. In addition, TP had an insignificant impact on EI during 2006-2013 but demonstrated a significant inhibitory effect during 2014-2021. These findings offer valuable insights for enhancing energy efficiency and advancing sustainable, low-carbon development.