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冠状动脉疾病患者的个性化治疗:预测模型的价值与局限性

Personalized Treatment of Patients with Coronary Artery Disease: The Value and Limitations of Predictive Models.

作者信息

Greco Antonio, Capodanno Davide

机构信息

Division of Cardiology, Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria Policlinico "G. Rodolico-San Marco", University of Catania, 95123 Catania, Italy.

出版信息

J Cardiovasc Dev Dis. 2025 Sep 8;12(9):344. doi: 10.3390/jcdd12090344.

DOI:10.3390/jcdd12090344
PMID:41002623
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12470486/
Abstract

Risk prediction models are increasingly used in the management of coronary artery disease (CAD), with applications ranging from diagnostic stratification to prognostic assessment and therapeutic guidance. In the context of CAD and percutaneous coronary intervention, clinical decision-making often relies on risk scores to estimate the likelihood of ischemic and bleeding events and to tailor antithrombotic strategies accordingly. Traditional scores are derived from clinical, anatomical, procedural, and laboratory variables, and their performance is evaluated based on discrimination and calibration metrics. While many established models are simple, interpretable, and externally validated, their predictive ability is often moderate and may be limited by outdated derivation cohorts, overfitting, or lack of generalizability. Recent advances have introduced artificial intelligence and machine learning models that can process large, high-dimensional datasets and identify patterns not apparent through conventional methods, with the aim to incorporate complex data; however, they are not exempt from limitations and struggle with integration into clinical practice. Notably, ethical issues, such as equity in model application, over-stratification, and real-world implementation, are of critical importance. The ideal predictive model should be accurate, generalizable, and clinically actionable. This review aims at providing an overview of the main predictive models used in the field of CAD and to discuss methodological challenges, with a focus on strengths, limitations and areas of applicability of predictive models.

摘要

风险预测模型在冠状动脉疾病(CAD)管理中的应用越来越广泛,其应用范围涵盖从诊断分层到预后评估及治疗指导。在CAD和经皮冠状动脉介入治疗的背景下,临床决策通常依赖风险评分来估计缺血和出血事件的可能性,并据此制定抗栓策略。传统评分基于临床、解剖、操作和实验室变量得出,其性能根据区分度和校准指标进行评估。虽然许多已确立的模型简单、可解释且经过外部验证,但其预测能力往往一般,可能受到过时的推导队列、过度拟合或缺乏通用性的限制。最近的进展引入了人工智能和机器学习模型,这些模型可以处理大型高维数据集,并识别传统方法无法发现的模式,旨在纳入复杂数据;然而,它们也并非没有局限性,并且在融入临床实践方面面临困难。值得注意的是,伦理问题,如模型应用的公平性、过度分层和实际应用,至关重要。理想的预测模型应准确、具有通用性且在临床上可行。本综述旨在概述CAD领域中使用的主要预测模型,并讨论方法学挑战,重点关注预测模型的优势、局限性和适用领域。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/2ee0/12470486/f84dd61d6952/jcdd-12-00344-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/2ee0/12470486/72b946ac81bf/jcdd-12-00344-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/2ee0/12470486/8185ed4cb3eb/jcdd-12-00344-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/2ee0/12470486/f84dd61d6952/jcdd-12-00344-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/2ee0/12470486/72b946ac81bf/jcdd-12-00344-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/2ee0/12470486/8185ed4cb3eb/jcdd-12-00344-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/2ee0/12470486/f84dd61d6952/jcdd-12-00344-g003.jpg

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