Knox E G, Mahon D F
Arch Dis Child. 1970 Oct;45(243):634-9. doi: 10.1136/adc.45.243.634.
The operational effectiveness of Infant At Risk Registers was examined using record linkage techniques. Two operations were carried out: () the linkage of the 1965 Birmingham Observation Register with the 1968 file of `Defective Children' as notified to the Education Department; and () the file of maternity data for the whole of Birmingham in 1956, linked with the list of children receiving special education in 1968. Positive associations were found between assessment of risk in the Observation Register and subsequent defects as notified to the Education Department at age 3; and between assessment of risk made on the basis of the maternity data and the likelihood of requiring special education at age 13. The main predictors were low birthweight, traumatic delivery, and the indices of social underprivilege. However, none of these determinants were sufficient to justify the continuation of selective At Risk Registers whose purpose is defined in terms of prediction. They should be withdrawn or should be redesigned to the different purposes of registering the known handicapped, and extending developmental surveillance to all children, rather than concentrating it upon a few.
运用记录链接技术对“高危婴儿登记册”的运作效果进行了研究。开展了两项工作：（1）将1965年伯明翰观察登记册与1968年通知给教育部的“残疾儿童”档案相链接；（2）将1956年整个伯明翰的产妇数据档案与1968年接受特殊教育儿童名单相链接。研究发现，观察登记册中的风险评估与3岁时通知给教育部的后续缺陷之间存在正相关；基于产妇数据进行的风险评估与13岁时需要特殊教育的可能性之间也存在正相关。主要预测因素是低出生体重、难产以及社会弱势指标。然而，这些决定因素中没有一个足以证明继续设立选择性“高危登记册”是合理的，其目的是进行预测。应撤销这些登记册，或者应重新设计，使其服务于登记已知残疾儿童以及将发育监测扩展至所有儿童的不同目的，而不是仅集中于少数儿童。
