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[关于人口理论的思考(作者译)]

[Contemplations on demographic theories (author's transl)].

作者信息

Maier W

出版信息

Geburtshilfe Frauenheilkd. 1979 Mar;39(3):256-9.

PMID:437463
Abstract

All demographic theories make statements on the relationship between population developments and economic developments. The demographic teachings of Adam Smith, Thomas Robert Malthus, and Karl Marx are embedded in their specific economic theories and contain ideologic statements which are not detrimental to demographic and economic sciences but a stimulus for research. The demographic theories which developed with the onset of the industrial revolution of the 19th century are all sceptical of too high populations independent of their analysis of the market mechanisms or of capitalistic production relationships. This has remained unchanged to date. The statistical evaluation of the 1980's underlines this problem. The reproductive behaviour and demographic theory of a highly industrialized economy can not be based on experience alone but must also be based on rational findings. The rejection of the prestige value of children on the reproductive behaviour which is independent of circumstances must be recognized.

摘要

所有人口理论都阐述了人口发展与经济发展之间的关系。亚当·斯密、托马斯·罗伯特·马尔萨斯和卡尔·马克思的人口学说都融入了他们各自特定的经济理论之中,并且包含着一些意识形态方面的论述,这些论述并非对人口学和经济学有害,而是研究的一种推动力。随着19世纪工业革命的兴起而发展起来的人口理论,无论其对市场机制或资本主义生产关系的分析如何,都对过高的人口数量持怀疑态度。这一点至今未变。20世纪80年代的统计评估凸显了这一问题。高度工业化经济体的生育行为和人口理论不能仅基于经验,还必须基于理性的研究结果。必须认识到,摒弃子女的声望价值对生育行为的影响,这种影响与具体情况无关。

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