Ustinskova N M, Syrkin A L, Markova A I, Zhuravel' A A
Kardiologiia. 1979 May;19(5):29-34.
The authors developed a method for prognosticating the outcome of recurrent myocardial infarction with the use of the Bayes formula. The diagnosis of recurrent myocardial infarction was made when necroses recurred in the myocardium during in-patient treatment for acute myocardial infarction. The prognosis was determined 72 hours after the recurrence of the necrosis. The prognostic signs characterized predominantly the degree of congestive circulatory failure and the frequency of disorders of cardiac rhythm in the acute period of myocardial infarction and recurrent myocardial infarction as well as in the interval betwen them (10 signs with informativeness of 0.117 to 0.05 were used.) The prognosis was erroneous in 8 of 70 patients who recovered from the disease and in 1 of 17 who died.
作者们开发了一种利用贝叶斯公式预测复发性心肌梗死预后的方法。复发性心肌梗死的诊断是在急性心肌梗死住院治疗期间心肌出现坏死复发时做出的。在坏死复发72小时后确定预后。预后指标主要表征心肌梗死急性期、复发性心肌梗死期以及二者之间间隔期的充血性循环衰竭程度和心律失常频率（使用了10个信息性在0.117至0.05之间的指标）。70例康复患者中有8例预后判断错误，17例死亡患者中有1例预后判断错误。
