Anderson R M, May R M
Nature. 1979 Aug 2;280(5721):361-7. doi: 10.1038/280361a0.
If the host population is taken to be a dynamic variable (rather than constant, as conventionally assumed), a wider understanding of the population biology of infectious diseases emerges. In this first part of a two-part article, mathematical models are developed, shown to fit data from laboratory experiments, and used to explore the evolutionary relations among transmission parameters. In the second part of the article, to be published in next week's issue, the models are extended to include indirectly transmitted infections, and the general implications for infectious diseases are considered.
如果将宿主种群视为一个动态变量(而非如传统假设那样为常量),就会对传染病的种群生物学有更广泛的理解。在这篇分为两部分的文章的第一部分中,构建了数学模型,证明其与实验室实验数据相符,并用于探究传播参数之间的进化关系。在文章的第二部分(将于下周刊出),这些模型将得到扩展,以纳入间接传播的感染,并考虑其对传染病的总体影响。