Jovine R, Ghezzo F, Orecchio F
Ann Sclavo. 1979 Mar-Apr;21(2):175-88.
In this paper a mathematical approach to the epidemics is proposed. The method is based upon a model able to describe any time-depending phenomena using the following elements: "class", "transition" and "related probability". The solution of the differential equations describing the model are obtained: first, by numerical techniques; second, by a Montecarlo simulation method. Deterministic and stochastic solutions which have been obtained, by applying the model to the study of viral hepatitis in Italy during 1960--1970, have been compared each other, to improve the model itself.
本文提出了一种针对流行病的数学方法。该方法基于一个能够使用以下要素描述任何随时间变化现象的模型:“类别”、“转变”和“相关概率”。得到了描述该模型的微分方程的解:首先,通过数值技术;其次,通过蒙特卡洛模拟方法。将通过应用该模型对1960年至1970年意大利病毒性肝炎研究获得的确定性解和随机解进行了比较,以改进模型本身。