Gustafson D H, Kestly J J, Greist J H, Jensen N M
Health Serv Res. 1971 Fall;6(3):204-13.
A computer-aided diagnostic system using subjectively estimated probabilities for symptom—disease relationships is described and applied to a sample of 200 cases divided among hypothyroid, euthyroid, and hyperthyroid diagnoses. The subjective system is evaluated by comparing it with one using actuarial probabilities developed in standard fashion and one using separate actuarial probabilities for suspected hypothyroid and suspected hyperthyroid categories. Analysis of the data indicates that the subjective model's developmental cost and time requirement is much lower, while it performs as well as either actuarial model.
本文描述了一种计算机辅助诊断系统，该系统使用主观估计的症状与疾病关系概率，并将其应用于200例分为甲状腺功能减退、甲状腺功能正常和甲状腺功能亢进诊断的样本。通过将主观系统与以标准方式开发的使用精算概率的系统以及对疑似甲状腺功能减退和疑似甲状腺功能亢进类别使用单独精算概率的系统进行比较，对主观系统进行了评估。数据分析表明，主观模型的开发成本和时间要求要低得多，而其性能与两种精算模型相当。
