Prognostic factors in acquired aplastic anemia. A study of 352 cases.

The prognostic factors of short- and long-term survival have been studied in 352 patients with aplastic anemia of all grades of severity. This group was homogeneous with regard to the clinical and laboratory survey, and the treatment used [high-dose androgen therapy]. The "hierarchy" of the individual prognostic parameters has been established: current severe infection, granulocyte count, percentage of the nonmyeloid cells on the bone marrow slides, platelet count, reticulocyte count, 59Fe utilization, and stromal disorganization on the bone marrow biopsy specimen. As these parameters are interrelated, a multiparametric analysis enables us to define groups of patients with different short-term evolution and to derive a prognostic index from these data. The use of such an index, however, allows a correct prediction in only 73 per cent of the cases, better in the milder than in the more severe cases. It is possible that the short-term evolutive tendency (improvement or worsening during the first six weeks of therapy) may contribute supplementary information useful for prognosis and the choice of treatment. After the first three months critical period, the mortality rate no longer depends on the initial severity of the disease but exclusively on the clinical and hematologic improvement. Thus, comparing the hematologic data obtained initially and after three months of androgen therapy allows us to correctly predict the long-term evolution.