Bithell J F, Devlin H B
Health Serv Res. 1968 Fall;3(3):174-84.
This paper describes a survey in which 273 surgical patients at St. Thomas' Hospital, London, were studied to ascertain the extent to which their discharge could be predicted. Initial length-of-stay estimates were recorded for 57 percent of the cases; the excess of actual over predicted length of stay had a mean of 2.71 and a standard deviation of 10.2 days. The length of stay of the other 43 percent had greater variability. Continuous predictions of discharge were made, in which discharge dates were regularly estimated and assigned degrees of certainty, which were also recorded. The information obtained represented a 31.5 percent reduction in the squared prediction error of the number of discharges within three days over an estimate employing only a count of patients under review. The implications of the findings are discussed.
本文描述了一项调查，该调查对伦敦圣托马斯医院的273名外科手术患者进行了研究，以确定他们出院的可预测程度。57%的病例记录了初始住院时间估计值；实际住院时间超过预测住院时间的平均值为2.71天，标准差为10.2天。另外43%的患者住院时间变异性更大。研究人员进行了连续的出院预测，定期估计出院日期并给出确定程度，这些信息也被记录下来。与仅采用审查患者数量的估计相比，所获得的信息使三天内出院人数的平方预测误差降低了31.5%。本文还讨论了这些研究结果的意义。
