Dead wrong--estrogens, osteoporosis cancer and public policy.

Practicing physicians must constantly decide what is the best treatment for each patient. Their decisions are often influenced by prominent professors and by a climate of opinion created by the press and regulatory agencies. If these are wrong, because of pressure from 'consumer advocates', wrong interpretations, or the risks of litigation, physicians may be forced into making inactive decisions which can cause more harm than the treatment under attack. My attention was drawn to this problem by recent actions of the press and the FDA discouraging the use of estrogens because of a putative risk of endometrial cancer. Even if the danger were real, and I consider the evidence faulty, doctors would have to balance risks against benefits. We have 2,718 deaths each year, constant for ten years, from endometrial cancer and at least 50,000 female deaths because of preventable osteoporotic hip fractures. Recent data establish that the doses of estrogen needed to prevent postmenopausal bone loss are lower than those associated with any cancer. History abounds with similar examples. Semmelweis showed that handwashing prevented deaths from puerperal sepsis but was laughed into a madhouse. More recent examples are the long delays in the use of propranolol, cimetidine, bromcryptine, pulmonary surgery, antihypertensive therapy, poliomyelitis vaccination, penicillin and cardiac surgery. An approach to correction of this serious problem will be presented.